History

Forewarned

A Sceptic's Guide to Prediction

Author: Paul Goodwin

Publisher: Biteback Publishing

ISBN: 1785902997

Category: History

Page: 304

View: 3921

Whether it’s an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result or an expected barbecue season that sees record rainfall, forecasts have impacts on us all. But do forecasters tell you all that they know or what they really believe? When is your gut feeling likely to be better than a computer’s prediction? Can you accurately predict your own emotional reaction to future events like a new job or a new house? And when is a ‘forecast’ not a forecast? Forewarned will answer these questions, and many more besides, covering a wide range of topics, from business to politics, sport and lotteries to that old perennial, the weather. Forewarned is a consumer’s guide to prediction, based on the very latest scientific research. By the end of the book you’ll be better placed to make informed decisions in a volatile world. You’ll know when forecasts can be a reliable guide to the vicissitudes and uncertainties of the future - and when they are best ignored.
Computers

Profit From Your Forecasting Software

A Best Practice Guide for Sales Forecasters

Author: Paul Goodwin

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119416000

Category: Computers

Page: 240

View: 9207

Go beyond technique to master the difficult judgement calls of forecasting A variety of software can be used effectively to achieve accurate forecasting, but no software can replace the essential human component. You may be new to forecasting, or you may have mastered the statistical theory behind the software’s predictions, and even more advanced “power user” techniques for the software itself—but your forecasts will never reach peak accuracy unless you master the complex judgement calls that the software cannot make. Profit From Your Forecasting Software addresses the issues that arise regularly, and shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software. Taking a non-mathematical approach to the various forecasting models, the discussion covers common everyday decisions such as model choice, forecast adjustment, product hierarchies, safety stock levels, model fit, testing, and much more. Clear explanations help you better understand seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared, and an exploration of psychological biases provides insight into the decision to override the software’s forecast. With a focus on choice, interpretation, and judgement, this book goes beyond the technical manuals to help you truly grasp the more intangible skills that lead to better accuracy. Explore the advantages and disadvantages of alternative forecasting methods in different situations Master the interpretation and evaluation of your software’s output Learn the subconscious biases that could affect your judgement toward intervention Find expert guidance on testing, planning, and configuration to help you get the most out of your software Relevant to sales forecasters, demand planners, and analysts across industries, Profit From Your Forecasting Software is the much sought-after “missing piece” in forecasting reference.
History

War and Peace and War

The Rise and Fall of Empires

Author: Peter Turchin

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 9781101126912

Category: History

Page: 416

View: 3893

Like Jared Diamond in Guns, Germs, and Steel, Peter Turchin in War and Peace and War uses his expertise in evolutionary biology to make a highly original argument about the rise and fall of empires. Turchin argues that the key to the formation of an empire is a society’s capacity for collective action. He demonstrates that high levels of cooperation are found where people have to band together to fight off a common enemy, and that this kind of cooperation led to the formation of the Roman and Russian empires, and the United States. But as empires grow, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, conflict replaces cooperation, and dissolution inevitably follows. Eloquently argued and rich with historical examples, War and Peace and War offers a bold new theory about the course of world history.
Business & Economics

Principles of Forecasting

A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners

Author: J. S. Armstrong

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9780792379300

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 849

View: 5215

This work summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies, providing guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. The 30 chapters cover various forecsating methods, from judgemental to quantitative.
Biography & Autobiography

Electric Pioneer

An Armchair Guide to Gary Numan

Author: Paul Goodwin

Publisher: Helter Skelter Limited

ISBN: 9781900924955

Category: Biography & Autobiography

Page: 288

View: 2076

First musical study of electro hero, Gary Numan, best known for no 1 single "Cars".
Christian life

A Call to Stand Apart

Challenging Young Adults to Make an Eternal Difference

Author: Ellen Gould Harmon White

Publisher: Review and Herald Pub Assoc

ISBN: 9780828016957

Category: Christian life

Page: 120

View: 312

Counsel on relationships, health, social justice, careers, the authority of Scripture, and salvation for young adults. Each chapter is prefaced by the testimony of a young adult who has been positively influenced by Ellen White.
Body, Mind & Spirit

The Science of Premonitions

How Knowing the Future Can Help Us Avoid Danger, Maximize Opportunities, and Cre ate a Better Life

Author: Larry Dossey

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 1101404574

Category: Body, Mind & Spirit

Page: 320

View: 7712

"Larry Dossey is one of America's most important thinkers. When he talks, I listen." -Marianne Williamson, author of A Return to Love In the New York Times bestseller, Healing Words, Dr. Dossey investigated why patients surrounded by prayer healed faster and more completely than patients who were not. Now, in The Science of Premonitions, Dossey uses cutting-edge science to make a convincing case that premonitions are real, common, and helpful. Then Dossey explores research on mindfulness and meditation to show readers how they can cultivate and take advantage of premonitions. Packed with compelling case studies and thought-provoking findings, this is a book for the skeptical mind and the believer's heart, and will be greeted warmly by "anyone who is interested in knowing about the deeper meaning of our existence." (Deepak Chopra, M.D.)
Religion

The Outsider Test for Faith

How to Know Which Religion Is True

Author: John W. Loftus

Publisher: Prometheus Books

ISBN: 1616147385

Category: Religion

Page: 300

View: 1951

Fostering mutual understanding by viewing religion from an outsider perspective Depending on how one defines religion, there are at least thousands of religions in the world. Given such religious diversity, how can any one religion claim to know the truth? Nothing proposed so far has helped us settle which of these religions, if any, are true--until now. Author John W. Loftus, a former minister turned atheist, argues we would all be better off if we viewed any religion--including our own--from the informed skepticism of an outsider, a nonbeliever. For this reason he has devised "the outsider test for faith." He describes it as a variation on the Golden Rule: "Do unto your own faith what you do to other faiths." Essentially, this means applying the same skepticism to our own beliefs as we do to the beliefs of other faiths. Loftus notes that research from psychology, anthropology, sociology, and neuroscience goes a long way toward explaining why the human race has produced so many belief systems, why religion is culturally dependent, and how religion evolved in the first place. It's important that people understand these findings to escape the dangerous delusion that any one religion represents the only truth. At a time when the vast diversity of human belief systems is accessible to all, the outsider test for faith offers a rational means for fostering mutual understanding. From the Trade Paperback edition.
Philosophy

Believing Bullshit

How Not to Get Sucked into an Intellectual Black Hole

Author: Stephen Law

Publisher: Prometheus Books

ISBN: 1616144122

Category: Philosophy

Page: 271

View: 5982

This book identifies eight key mechanisms that can transform a set of ideas into a psychological flytrap. The author suggests that, like the black holes of outer space, from which nothing, not even light, can escape, our contemporary cultural landscape contains numerous intellectual black-holes—belief systems constructed in such a way that unwary passers-by can similarly find themselves drawn in. While such self-sealing bubbles of belief will most easily trap the gullible or poorly educated, even the most intelligent and educated of us are potentially vulnerable. Some of the world’s greatest thinkers have fallen in, never to escape. This witty, insightful critique will help immunize readers against the wiles of cultists, religious and political zealots, conspiracy theorists, promoters of flaky alternative medicines, and various other nutcases by clearly setting out the tricks of the trade by which such insidious belief systems are created and maintained. From the Trade Paperback edition.
Political Science

Climate Cover-Up

The Crusade to Deny Global Warming

Author: James Hoggan,Richard Littlemore

Publisher: Greystone Books Ltd

ISBN: 1553654854

Category: Political Science

Page: 250

View: 4077

Looks at the efforts being made to refute the findings of environmental scientists on the subject of global warming, exploring the public relations techniques, the creation of questionable think tanks, and the mounting private funding being used by pollsters and public commentators to deny the negative effects of climate change.
Religion

Prophecy Speaks

Dissolving Doubts

Author: Earle Albert Rowell

Publisher: Review and Herald Pub Assoc

ISBN: 0828024022

Category: Religion

Page: 110

View: 2557

¿Inviting all skeptics, scoffers, unbelievers, infidels!¿The advertisement in the newspaper caught George Emerson¿s attention. A man named David Dare was inviting all skeptics, scoffers, unbelievers, and infidels to his lectures¿and they were free to interrupt at any time with questions or with denials of his statements! Who could pass up an opportunity like that?But when George and his family arrived at the meeting hall, they were startled to hear the intrepid Mr. Dare claim that prophecy would prove the Bible to be true. They were quite sure it wasn¿t possible. Or was it?
Social Science

We Want Land to Live

Making Political Space for Food Sovereignty

Author: Amy Trauger

Publisher: University of Georgia Press

ISBN: 0820350265

Category: Social Science

Page: 172

View: 7359

We Want Land to Live explores the current boundaries of radical approaches to food sovereignty. First coined by La Via Campesina (a global movement whose name means “the peasant’s way”), food sovereignty is a concept that expresses the universal right to food. Amy Trauger uses research combining ethnography, participant observation, field notes, and interviews to help us understand the material and definitional struggles surrounding the decommodification of food and the transfor­mation of the global food system’s political-economic foundations. Trauger’s work is the first of its kind to analytically and coherently link a dialogue on food sovereignty with case studies illustrating the spatial and territorial strate­gies by which the movement fosters its life in the margins of the corporate food regime. She discusses community gardeners in Portugal; small-scale, independent farmers in Maine; Native American wild rice gatherers in Minnesota; seed library supporters in Pennsylvania; and permaculturists in Georgia. The problem in the food system, as the activists profiled here see it, is not markets or the role of governance but that the right to food is conditioned by what the state and corporations deem to be safe, legal, and profitable—and not by what eaters think is right in terms of their health, the environment, or their communities. Useful for classes on food studies and active food movements alike, We Want Land to Live makes food sovereignty issues real as it illustrates a range of methodological alternatives that are consistent with its discourse: direct action (rather than charity, market creation, or policy changes), civil disobedience (rather than compliance with discriminatory laws), and mutual aid (rather than reliance on top-down aid).
Biography & Autobiography

A Bazaar Life

The Autobiography of David Alliance

Author: David Alliance

Publisher: Biteback Publishing

ISBN: 1849548781

Category: Biography & Autobiography

Page: 448

View: 4961

At the age of thirteen, David Alliance was taken out of school by his father and apprenticed into the Grand Bazaar in Tehran, where he learned the business skills that were to prove invaluable in one of the most successful business careers of modern times. In 1950, with just ?14 in his pocket, he arrived in Manchester in search of textile bargains, going hungry and sometimes forced to sleep on the street. Six years later, however, when he was still only twenty-four, he bought a loss-making textile mill, turned it around in six months and went on to build the biggest textile company in the Western world. At one stage his businesses, including his mail-order company, N Brown Group, employed more than 80,000 people. He did it through a mixture of incredibly hard work, creativity and nerve, and some of his takeovers, often of companies many times larger than his own, were breathtaking in their ingenuity. No obstacle was unscalable - his guiding principle all his life was that everything is achievable 'if you put your heart and soul into it'. Humble, charming and delightfully honest, Alliance's extraordinary rags-to-riches tale is not only that of a remarkable journey, but goes far beyond the world of business. Among many stories which have until now remained secret, Alliance tells of how he used the skills he learned in the bazaar to negotiate with the dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam to allow the Ethiopian Jews to be airlifted to Israel, his friendship with the Shah of Iran and the first-hand insight into the infamous Guinness affair. In A Bazaar Life, written with Ivan Fallon, he sets out the lessons he has learned in a long career, and the principles that have guided him. Young - and older - entrepreneurs can learn a lot from his story.
Social Science

The Dignity of Working Men

morality and the boundaries of race, class, and immigration

Author: Michèle LAMONT,Michèle Lamont

Publisher: Harvard University Press

ISBN: 0674039882

Category: Social Science

Page: 416

View: 2033

Business & Economics

Influence (rev)

The Psychology of Persuasion

Author: Robert B. Cialdini

Publisher: Harper Collins

ISBN: 0688128165

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 320

View: 6362

Influence, the classic book on persuasion, explains the psychology of why people say "yes"-and how to apply these understandings. Dr. Robert Cialdini is the seminal expert in the rapidly expanding field of influence and persuasion. His thirty-five years of rigorous, evidence-based research along with a three-year program of study on what moves people to change behavior has resulted in this highly acclaimed book. You'll learn the six universal principles, how to use them to become a skilled persuader-and how to defend yourself against them. Perfect for people in all walks of life, the principles of Influence will move you toward profound personal change and act as a driving force for your success.
Fiction

Patriots

A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse

Author: James Wesley Rawles

Publisher: Ulysses Press

ISBN: 156975599X

Category: Fiction

Page: 400

View: 7656

A tale by the creator of SurvivalBlog.com imagines a world in which a cataclysmic financial crisis prompts a total collapse of American society and forces people to fend for themselves, in a story that follows a group of protagonists who make their way to a shared secure ranch in northern Idaho, where they struggle to survive against violent looting and natural hazards. Original.
Communication in social action

Social by Social

A Practical Guide to Using New Technologies to Deliver Social Impact

Author: Andy Gibson,Nigel Courtney,Amy Sample Ward,David Wilcox

Publisher: Mute Publishing Ltd

ISBN: 1906496412

Category: Communication in social action

Page: 253

View: 8192

Explains how the new technology tools for social interaction are changing society, and how individuals and organizations with a social conscience can use them to do more good. Helps the user frame and answer the questions about a project, shows routes others have tried, and suggests additional alternatives.
Literary Criticism

The Book to Come

Author: Maurice Blanchot,Charlotte Mandell

Publisher: Stanford University Press

ISBN: 9780804742245

Category: Literary Criticism

Page: 267

View: 7897

Featuring essays originally published in La Nouvelle Revue Française, this collection clearly demonstrates why Maurice Blanchot was a key figure in exploring the relation between literature and philosophy.
Humor

Not in Front of the Corgis

Secrets of Life Behind the Royal Curtains

Author: Brian Hoey

Publisher: Biteback Publishing

ISBN: 1849542481

Category: Humor

Page: 224

View: 1457

The Windsors are England's most famous family, but what are they really like when they're out of the public gaze? Behind closed doors in every Royal residence, from Buckingham Palace to Clarence House, there are two families - one upstairs and one down - and nobody knows a Royal quite like a Royal servant, intimately acquainted as they are with every quirk, foible and eccentricity. And there are a fair few! This is the inside story of the Royal Family through the eyes of those who know them best, a sneak peek behind the ermine-trimmed curtains to reveal what they really get up to in their spare time. Are they just like us? Or are they are a world apart? Here are the answers to everything we've ever wondered about the Royals: which programmes does the Queen watch on TV? What music did the Queen Mother listen to? Who can drive and who can't? What is it like to attend a dinner party thrown by Charles and Camilla? Who are the most popular (and most unpopular!) Royals to work for and why? Not in Front of the Corgis is the real Upstairs Downstairs - a unique and fascinating collection of all the secrets you ever wanted to know about the Royal Family.
Mathematics

The Calculus Story

A Mathematical Adventure

Author: David Acheson

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0192526715

Category: Mathematics

Page: 160

View: 4021

Calculus is the key to much of modern science and engineering. It is the mathematical method for the analysis of things that change, and since in the natural world we are surrounded by change, the development of calculus was a huge breakthrough in the history of mathematics. But it is also something of a mathematical adventure, largely because of the way infinity enters at virtually every twist and turn... In The Calculus Story David Acheson presents a wide-ranging picture of calculus and its applications, from ancient Greece right up to the present day. Drawing on their original writings, he introduces the people who helped to build our understanding of calculus. With a step by step treatment, he demonstrates how to start doing calculus, from the very beginning.