Whether it’s an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result or an expected barbecue season that sees record rainfall, forecasts have impacts on us all. But do forecasters tell you all that they know or what they really believe? When is your gut feeling likely to be better than a computer’s prediction? Can you accurately predict your own emotional reaction to future events like a new job or a new house? And when is a ‘forecast’ not a forecast? Forewarned will answer these questions, and many more besides, covering a wide range of topics, from business to politics, sport and lotteries to that old perennial, the weather. Forewarned is a consumer’s guide to prediction, based on the very latest scientific research. By the end of the book you’ll be better placed to make informed decisions in a volatile world. You’ll know when forecasts can be a reliable guide to the vicissitudes and uncertainties of the future - and when they are best ignored.
A comprehensive, accessible, and innovative approach to a potentially devastating problem. When a firm's actual earnings fall significantly short of expectations, it's not just the company that suffers. Lenders, equity investors, accountants, auditors, and consultants can also take a hit from this "earnings surprise." Financial Warnings is designed for one purpose--to make sure that such a shortfall never undermines your financial security. Clearly and systematically, this unique practical guide helps you: * Understand the many causes of earnings surprises, including fraud, overstated revenues, undervalued liabilities, and many more * Identify the early warning signals associated with particular earnings surprises, so you can take prompt corrective action * Prevent earnings surprises from happening in the first place by improving the quality of earnings forecasts Financial Warnings comes complete with a unique early warning system to put you on the alert for potential trouble, foolproof checklists to help you spot those "yellow flags," a convenient sustainable earnings worksheet to sharpen your earnings forecasts, and plenty of vivid case histories to show you how to anticipate and avoid earnings surprises--not just on paper, but in the real world. A material difference between a corporation's expected and actual earnings, otherwise known as an earnings surprise, can spell big trouble for lenders and equity investors, to say nothing of the company in question. The failure to anticipate a negative result can threaten a lender's prospects for loan repayment, cause investors to absorb heavy losses, and trigger substantial losses on positions in equity securities. Dedicated to the principle that "forewarned is forearmed," this book provides accountants and other users of financial statements with the resources needed to avoid these damaging financial discrepancies. Charles Mulford and Eugene Comiskey employ numerous case studies to examine and define these discrepancies and classify earnings surprises according to their major causes: changing economics, fraud, and aggressive application of GAAP. They then examine the results of a survey of bankers and develop a system for rating earnings surprise potential. This Earnings Reversal Score concisely categorizes cautionary signals, such as profitability, liquidity, and management-related early warnings, enabling accountants to recognize problems and take timely corrective measures. Financial Warnings helps improve the quality of earnings forecasts as well. With the aid of a detailed worksheet and a pair of extended case studies, you'll learn how to locate material nonrecurring items--a major cause of earnings surprises--and determine a firm's sustainable earnings base more accurately. You'll discover how to pinpoint differences in the book and market values of assets and liabilities, which, if undetected, can also result in earnings surprises. In addition, you'll learn the early warning indicators of fraudulent financial reporting, as well as crucial information on the role and responsibility of auditors in detecting such fraud. An important resource for accountants, executives, CFOs, and company auditors, Financial Warnings is an indispensable guide for investors and others who depend on the accuracy of earnings projections. Even if you have only a tentative understanding of basic accounting issues, this easily accessible presentation will help you develop the knowledge and skills you need to formulate more accurate earnings expectations and avoid the potential disasters caused by earnings surprises.
The doctor – and bestselling author – who first demonstrated the healing effects of prayer now offers an unprecedented look at the science of premonitions. The Power of Premonitions takes readers through documented cases of premonitions, including a remarkable instance when an entire Nebraska community skipped church the very day it exploded; an examination of recent scientific study of 'presentiment'; a discussion of what it all means to daily life; and practical field-tested techniques for inviting premonitions. In this compelling new book Dossey uses cutting-edge science to prove the value of what has long been considered spiritual mumbo-jumbo. This is a book for the sceptical mind, but it's also for the believer's heart – because its author possesses the rare gift of having both.
A Memoir of Marriage, Asperger Syndrome, and One Man's Quest to Be a Better Husband
Author: David Finch
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Category: Biography & Autobiography
A full-length account based on a popular New York Times article traces the author's battle with Asperger Syndrome, describing his adult diagnosis and the painstaking and often whimsical exercises he uses to preserve his family and build social skills.
Political Science by James Hoggan,Richard Littlemore
Looks at the efforts being made to refute the findings of environmental scientists on the subject of global warming, exploring the public relations techniques, the creation of questionable think tanks, and the mounting private funding being used by pollsters and public commentators to deny the negative effects of climate change.
Education by Raymond J. Wlodkowski,Margery B. Ginsberg
The classic interdisciplinary reference on adult education, updated for today's learning environment Enhancing Adult Motivation to Learn provides adult educators with the information and strategies they need to guide non-traditional students toward positive educational outcomes. Providing a clear framework, guidelines for instructional planning, real-world examples, and cutting-edge ideas, this book fills the need for intrinsically motivating instruction targeted specifically toward adults returning to school. This new fourth edition sharpens the focus on community colleges, where most first-generation college students and working adults begin their higher education, and explores the rising use of technology and alternative delivery methods including a new chapter covering online instruction. Since the publication of its first edition, this book has become a classic reference for understanding adult motivation in educational and training settings. As more and more adults re-enter the educational system, instructors and trainers will find extraordinary value in this exploration at the intersection of research and practice. Examine the latest neuroscience and psychological research pertaining to adult motivation and learning Delve into alternative formats including online learning, interactive learning materials, and more Elicit and encourage adult intrinsic motivation using the Motivational Framework for Culturally Responsive Teaching and sixty practical, research-backed strategies Adopt a culturally responsive instructional approach for an inclusive and equitable learning environment. Adult students differ from traditional students in motivation, attitude, experience, and more; this, combined with an increasingly diverse body of students as well electronic delivery methods, makes today's teaching environment a new landscape for instructors to navigate. Enhancing Adult Motivation to Learn provides a clear guide to success for instructors and students alike.
Business & Economics by Mim Carlson,Margaret Donohoe
As the position of nonprofit ED becomes more demanding, there is a need for an up-to-date resource. This revised edition of the best-selling book is filled with management advice for succeeding as an executive director. This new edition includes thoroughly updated information and new content. It covers topics on timely issues and practical strategies including: Avoiding Burnout, Accountability, Professional Networking, Financial Literacy, Measuring Effectiveness, and much more. Ideal for ED’s and board members, the book also includes new cases and stories from the field and “practical tips” sidebars.
The Lives and Times of Joan Baez, Bob Dylan, Mimi Baez Fariña, and Richard Fariña
Author: David Hajdu
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing
Category: Folk singers
In the 1960s, folk music was being crossed with rock 'n' roll to form a throughtful, literate, new musical style. This title relates just how folk became rock by looking at four young beatniks and their rise to fame: Bob Dylan, Joan Baez, her sister Mimi and Mimi's husband, Richard Farina.
Influence, the classic book on persuasion, explains the psychology of why people say "yes"—and how to apply these understandings. Dr. Robert Cialdini is the seminal expert in the rapidly expanding field of influence and persuasion. His thirty-five years of rigorous, evidence-based research along with a three-year program of study on what moves people to change behavior has resulted in this highly acclaimed book. You'll learn the six universal principles, how to use them to become a skilled persuader—and how to defend yourself against them. Perfect for people in all walks of life, the principles of Influence will move you toward profound personal change and act as a driving force for your success. Some images that appeared in the print edition of this book are unavailable in the electronic edition due to rights reasons.
A scarcity of natural resources. The challenge to protect biodiversity and the global climate. Rapid economic growth and urbanisation in Asia and the developing world. Changing demographics and an ageing population. The impact of new digital technologies. Consumer expectations for services, experiences and social interaction. An imperative to innovate. Megatrends are gradual yet powerful trajectories of change that have the potential to throw companies, individuals and societies into freefall. In Global Megatrends author Stefan Hajkowicz identifies these seven patterns of global change and tells a story about how the world will change over the next 20 years. The book captures the thinking of many dedicated scientists and researchers who have devoted their careers to exploring and understanding change. The change heralded by megatrends lies beyond our direct control but not beyond our influence. By getting a picture of how the world is changing and what these megatrends are, we can alter our destiny.
Author: Ronald L. Graham,Donald Ervin Knuth,Oren Patashnik
Publisher: Addison-Wesley Professional
This book, updated and improved, introduces the mathematics that supports advanced computer programming and the analysis of algorithms. The primary aim of its well-known authors is to provide a solid and relevant base of mathematical skills--the skills needed to solve complex problems, to evaluate horrendous-looking sums, to solve complex recurrence relations, and to discover subtle patterns in data. It is an indispensable text and reference, not only for computer scientists but for all technical professionals in virtually every discipline.
You owe it to yourself to read this book before you choose a medical specialty! The Ultimate Guide to Choosing a Medical Specialty, 3rd edition delivers a well-researched, insider’s look at the complex issues medical students face when choosing a medical specialty. Supported by first-hand knowledge, useful facts and statistics – plus the author’s personal experience and gut-level reports from current residents -- this unique guide provides everything necessary to compare specialties and make a confident decision. The Ultimate Guide to Choosing a Medical Specialty, 3rd edition is divided into two sections: Part 1 Planning Your Medical Career delves into the main issues surrounding the choice of your medical specialty. These twelve chapters provide everything you need to begin making this major decision – from how to research each specialty to how to apply for residency. Part 2 Specialty Profiles features chapters devoted to each of the 20 major specialties. It provides important information such as the latest salary information, employment data, and match statistics. Features: An “insider’s look” at different areas of medicine -- with specialty chapters written by physicians just out of residency training Candid and revealing descriptions of each specialty Profiles of the major specialties, including those to which you may have had little exposure, such as radiation oncology A concise, up-to-date guide to the residency application and matching process A chapter with valuable advice to help you maximize your success in obtaining a residency position in each field Updated to include alternative career paths for MDs, such as laboratory science, the military, MD/MBA, and MD/JD
While shipwrecked on the island of Pala, Will Farnaby, a disenchanted journalist, discovers a utopian society that has flourished for the past 120 years. Although he at first disregards the possibility of an ideal society, as Farnaby spends time with the people of Pala his ideas about humanity change. HarperPerennial Classics brings great works of literature to life in digital format, upholding the highest standards in ebook production and celebrating reading in all its forms. Look for more titles in the HarperPerennial Classics collection to build your digital library.