Mathematics

How to Lie with Statistics

Author: Darrell Huff

Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company

ISBN:

Category: Mathematics

Page: 144

View: 954

Over Half a Million Copies Sold--an Honest-to-Goodness Bestseller Darrell Huff runs the gamut of every popularly used type of statistic, probes such things as the sample study, the tabulation method, the interview technique, or the way the results are derived from the figures, and points up the countless number of dodges which are used to full rather than to inform.
Mathematics

Standard Deviations

Author: Gary Smith

Publisher: Gerald Duckworth & Co

ISBN:

Category: Mathematics

Page: 304

View: 186

Did you know that having a messy room will make you racist? Or that human beings possess the ability to postpone death until after important ceremonial occasions? Or that people live three to five years longer if they have positive initials, like ACE? All of these ‘facts’ have been argued with a straight face by researchers and backed up with reams of data and convincing statistics. As Nobel Prize-winning economist Ronald Coase once cynically observed, ‘If you torture data long enough, it will confess.’ Lying with statistics is a time-honoured con. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. Today, data is so plentiful that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful deductions and total rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves. Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioural economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely, and taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and brings into stark relief the fraud that surrounds us all.
Business & Economics

How to Lie with Charts

Author: Gerald Everett Jones

Publisher: LaPuerta Books and Media

ISBN:

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 302

View: 883

If you're using a computer to generate charts for meetings and reports, you don't have to be taught how to lie - you're already doing it. You probably don't know your charts are unreliable, and neither does your audience. So you're getting away with it - until a manager or a sales prospect or an investor makes a bad decision based on the information that you were so helpful to provide. The main focus of How to Lie with Charts is on the principles of persuasive-and undistorted-visual communication. It's about careful thinking and clear expression. So don't blame the computers. People are running the show.About the AuthorGerald Everett Jones has written more than 25 books on computer and business topics, including Murphy's Laws of Excel (Sybex), Freelance Graphics for Windows: The Art of Presentation (Prima), Real World Digital Video (Peachpit Press), and 24P: Make Your Digital Movies Look Like Hollywood (Thomson). His professional career spans all phases of digital media production and distribution, including book packaging, Web development, and film-look video.
Social Science

More Damned Lies and Statistics

Author: Joel Best

Publisher: Univ of California Press

ISBN:

Category: Social Science

Page: 217

View: 524

In this sequel to the acclaimed Damned Lies and Statistics, which the Boston Globe said "deserves a place next to the dictionary on every school, media, and home-office desk," Joel Best continues his straightforward, lively, and humorous account of how statistics are produced, used, and misused by everyone from researchers to journalists. Underlining the importance of critical thinking in all matters numerical, Best illustrates his points with examples of good and bad statistics about such contemporary concerns as school shootings, fatal hospital errors, bullying, teen suicides, deaths at the World Trade Center, college ratings, the risks of divorce, racial profiling, and fatalities caused by falling coconuts. More Damned Lies and Statistics encourages all of us to think in a more sophisticated and skeptical manner about how statistics are used to promote causes, create fear, and advance particular points of view. Best identifies different sorts of numbers that shape how we think about public issues: missing numbers are relevant but overlooked; confusing numbers bewilder when they should inform; scary numbers play to our fears about the present and the future; authoritative numbers demand respect they don’t deserve; magical numbers promise unrealistic, simple solutions to complex problems; and contentious numbers become the focus of data duels and stat wars. The author's use of pertinent, socially important examples documents the life-altering consequences of understanding or misunderstanding statistical information. He demystifies statistical measures by explaining in straightforward prose how decisions are made about what to count and what not to count, what assumptions get made, and which figures are brought to our attention. Best identifies different sorts of numbers that shape how we think about public issues. Entertaining, enlightening, and very timely, this book offers a basis for critical thinking about the numbers we encounter and a reminder that when it comes to the news, people count—in more ways than one.
Psychology

A Field Guide to Lies and Statistics

Author: Daniel Levitin

Publisher: Penguin UK

ISBN:

Category: Psychology

Page: 304

View: 616

A guide to critical thinking in the 'post-truth' era, from the author of Sunday Times best-seller The Organized Mind We live in a world of information overload. Facts and figures on absolutely everything are at our fingertips, but are too often biased, distorted, or outright lies. From unemployment figures to voting polls, IQ tests to divorce rates, we're bombarded by seemingly plausible statistics on how people live and what they think. Daniel Levitin teaches us how to effectively ask ourselves: can we really know that? And how do they know that? In this eye-opening, accessible guide filled with fascinating examples and practical takeaways, acclaimed neuroscientist Daniel Levitin shows us how learning to understand statistics will enable you to make better, smarter judgements on the world around you.
Social Science

Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics

Author: Gary Smith

Publisher: The Overlook Press

ISBN:

Category: Social Science

Page: 336

View: 938

“A very entertaining book about a very serious problem. We deceive ourselves all the time with statistics, and it is time we wised up.” –Robert J. Shiller, Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics Did you know that baseball players whose names begin with the letter “D” are more likely to die young? Or that Asian Americans are most susceptible to heart attacks on the fourth day of the month? Or that drinking a full pot of coffee every morning will add years to your life, but one cup a day increases the risk of pancreatic cancer? All of these “facts” have been argued with a straight face by credentialed researchers and backed up with reams of data and convincing statistics. As Nobel Prize–winning economist Ronald Coase once cynically observed, “If you torture data long enough, it will confess.” Lying with statistics is a time-honored con. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. Today, data is so plentiful that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful indicators and total rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves. With the breakout success of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise, the once humdrum subject of statistics has never been hotter. Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioral economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely and taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics author Steven D. Levitt, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and makes it easy to spot the fraud all around. London Times Book of the Week (2014)
Business & Economics

الاقتصاد العجيب: اقتصادي مارق يبحث في الجانب الخفي من كل شي

Author: Steven D. Levitt

Publisher: العبيكان للنشر

ISBN:

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 264

View: 505

أيهما أشد خطراً، المسدس أم حوض السباحة؟ ما هي الأشياء المشتركة بين معلمي المدارس ومصارعي السومو؟ لماذا ما يزال تجار المخدرات يعيشون مع أمهاتهم؟ ما هو مقدار اهتمام الوالدين حقاً؟ ما هو تأثير قضية «رو» و«ويد» في جرائم العنف؟ قد لا تبدو هذه الأسئلة مثل الأسئلة النمطية التي يسألها الاقتصادي، لكن ستيفن د. ليفيت ليس اقتصادياً نمطياً؛ إنه عالم شجاع أكثر من أي شيء آخر، يدرس المادة والأحاجي في الحياة اليومية ــ من الغش والجريمة إلى الرياضة وتربية الأطفال ــ وتقوم استنتاجاته عادة على قلب الحكمة التقليدية رأساً على عقب. وغالباً ما يبدأ بتل كبير من المعطيات وبسؤال بسيط لم يطرح من قبل. إنه يهتم ببعض هذه الأسئلة مثل قضايا الحياة والموت، وبعضها الآخر ذو ميزات استثنائية دون شك. وهكذا يحتوي هذا الكتاب على حقل جديد من الدراسة، وهو (الاقتصاد العجيب). ومن خلال سرده للقصص الآسرة ومن النظرة العميقة غير المباشرة، يبين ليفيت وزميله ستيفن ج. دوبنر أن الاقتصاد -في جذوره- دراسة للحوافز ـــ كيف يحصل الناس على ما يريدون أو يحتاجون، لاسيما عندما يريد الناس الآخرون الشيء ذاته أو يحتاجونه. في كتابهما (الاقتصاد العجيب)، يشرع المؤلفان في استكشاف الجانب الخفي ـــ من كل شيء؛ الأعمال الداخلية لعصابة مخدرات، وحقيقة الوسطاء العقاريين، وأساطير تمويل الحملات. وقصص الغش لدى معلمي المدارس. وأسرار جمعية كوكلوكس كلان (العرقية). ومن هنا فإذا كانت الأخلاق تمثل كيف نريد للعالم أن يسير، فإن الاقتصاد يمثل كيف يعمل العالم فعلاً. صحيح إن قراء هذا الكتاب سيتسلحون بقصص وأحاجٍ تكفي لتروى في آلاف الحفلات، لكن كتاب (الاقتصاد العجيب) يستطيع أن يقدم أكثر من ذلك، إنه يعيد تعريف الطريقة التي ننظر بها إلى العالم الحديث تعريفاً حرفياً. العبيكان للنشر
Education

Graphs Don’t Lie

Author: Lee Baker

Publisher: Lee Baker

ISBN:

Category: Education

Page: 47

View: 686

Sarah Palin, abortions, global warming and Usain Bolt. The CEO of Apple, 35 trillion gun deaths in 1995, Fox News and 193%. This book has got scandals galore! With 9 witty chapters taking you on a roller coaster tour of graphical lies, pictorial deceits and pie charts of mayhem, this might just be the most entertaining book about graphs you’ll read this year. Did you know that between them, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney enjoyed a total of 193% support from Republican candidates in the 2012 US primaries? It must be true – it was on a pie chart broadcast on Fox News. Did you also know that the number 34 is smaller than 14, and zero is much bigger than 22? Honest, it’s true, it was published in a respectable national newspaper after the 2017 UK General Election. There can’t have been any kind of misdirection here because they were all shown on a pie chart. In this astonishing book, award winning statistician and author Lee Baker uncovers how politicians, the press, corporations and other statistical conmen use graphs and charts to deceive their unwitting audience. Like how a shocking, and yet seemingly innocuous statement as “Every year since 1950, the number of children gunned down has doubled”, meant that there should have been at least 35 trillion gun deaths in 1995 alone, the year the quote was printed in a reputable journal. Or how an anti-abortion group made their point by trying to convince us all that 327,000 is actually a larger number than 935,573. Nice try, but no cigar – we weren’t born yesterday. In his trademark sardonic style, the author reveals the secrets of how the statistical hustlers use graphs and charts to manipulate and misrepresent for political or commercial gain – and often get away with it. Written as a layman’s guide to lying, cheating and deceiving with graphs, there’s not a dull page in sight! And it’s got elephants in it too… Discover the exciting world of lying with graphs and charts. Get this book, TODAY!
Business & Economics

Business Statistics Demystified

Author: Steven Kemp

Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional

ISBN:

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 380

View: 728

Say goodbye to dry presentations, grueling formulas, and abstract theories that would put Einstein to sleep -- now there's an easier way to master the disciplines you really need to know. McGraw-Hill's Demystified Series teaches complex subjects in a unique, easy-to-absorb manner, and is perfect for users without formal training or unlimited time. They're also the most time-efficient, interestingly written "brush-ups" you can find. Organized as self-teaching guides, they come complete with key points, background information, questions at the end of each chapter, and even final exams. You'll be able to learn more in less time, evaluate your areas of strength and weakness and reinforce your knowledge and confidence. This self-teaching guide brings business statistics down to an understandable level, using practical examples. Coverage includes: probability, analysis of variance, designed experiments, preparing statistical reports, basic statistical procedures, and much more.
Mathematics

Probability, Statistics, and Queueing Theory

Author: Arnold O. Allen

Publisher: Gulf Professional Publishing

ISBN:

Category: Mathematics

Page: 740

View: 571

This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edition includes a new chapter on regression as well as more than twice as many exercises at the end of each chapter. While the emphasis is the same as in the first edition, this new book makes more extensive use of available personal computer software, such as Minitab and Mathematica.