Mathematics

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks, Second Edition

Author: Norman Fenton,Martin Neil

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1351978969

Category: Mathematics

Page: 704

View: 1661

Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.
Business & Economics

Quantitatives Risikomanagement in der Immobilienwirtschaft

Bisherige Entwicklungen, Best Practices und Ableitung einer Evolutionsmatrix

Author: Cay Oertel

Publisher: Springer-Verlag

ISBN: 3658239719

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 302

View: 874

Dieses Buch gibt erstmals einen Überblick über den aktuellen Stand des quantitativen immobilienwirtschaftlichen Risk Managements und stellt eine entsprechende Grundstruktur dar. Es wendet sich damit an alle, deren Aufgabe die Entwicklung, Anpassung und Umsetzung von Risikomanagementsystemen im Immobilienbereich ist. Es hilft damit ganz wesentlich bei der Umsetzung regulatorischer Vorgaben, wie zum Beispiel der Etablierung von Risikotragfähigkeitsrechnungen. Die bestehenden gesetzlichen Anforderungen an das Risikomanagement (KAGB, AIFMD, KAMaRisk) sind weitgehend an das Risikomanagement von Wertpapierfonds angelehnt und berücksichtigen die Besonderheiten der Anlageklasse Immobilien nur eingeschränkt. So gibt es etwa keine allgemein anerkannte Definition für die Risikodeckungsmasse eines offenen Immobilienfonds. Die Etablierung einer auf quantitativen Modellen basierenden Risikotragfähigkeitsrechnung, wie regulatorisch gefordert, ist damit eine Herausforderung für das Risikomanagement und wird sehr unterschiedlich gelöst. Die Qualität von Immobilien sowie u. a. ihre Lage und damit ihr Risiko sind sehr individuell und werden seit jeher vor allem qualitativ beurteilt. Die dadurch bedingte Heterogenität sowie die nicht immer gegebene Veröffentlichung von zum Beispiel Transaktionspreisen, Mieten und Mietanreizen hat bis heute den Aufbau von umfassenden immobilien- und marktbezogenen Datenreihen verhindert, die für den Aufbau quantitativer Risikomodelle benötigt werden. Dieses Buch, das mit Unterstützung der Deka Immobilien entstanden ist, leistet einen wichtigen Beitrag zur Lösung dieses Problems.
Mathematics

Bayesian Networks

A Practical Guide to Applications

Author: Olivier Pourret,Patrick Naïm,Bruce Marcot

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9780470994542

Category: Mathematics

Page: 446

View: 8243

Bayesian Networks, the result of the convergence of artificial intelligence with statistics, are growing in popularity. Their versatility and modelling power is now employed across a variety of fields for the purposes of analysis, simulation, prediction and diagnosis. This book provides a general introduction to Bayesian networks, defining and illustrating the basic concepts with pedagogical examples and twenty real-life case studies drawn from a range of fields including medicine, computing, natural sciences and engineering. Designed to help analysts, engineers, scientists and professionals taking part in complex decision processes to successfully implement Bayesian networks, this book equips readers with proven methods to generate, calibrate, evaluate and validate Bayesian networks. The book: Provides the tools to overcome common practical challenges such as the treatment of missing input data, interaction with experts and decision makers, determination of the optimal granularity and size of the model. Highlights the strengths of Bayesian networks whilst also presenting a discussion of their limitations. Compares Bayesian networks with other modelling techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and fault trees. Describes, for ease of comparison, the main features of the major Bayesian network software packages: Netica, Hugin, Elvira and Discoverer, from the point of view of the user. Offers a historical perspective on the subject and analyses future directions for research. Written by leading experts with practical experience of applying Bayesian networks in finance, banking, medicine, robotics, civil engineering, geology, geography, genetics, forensic science, ecology, and industry, the book has much to offer both practitioners and researchers involved in statistical analysis or modelling in any of these fields.
Business & Economics

Quantitatives Risikomanagement in der Immobilienwirtschaft

Bisherige Entwicklungen, Best Practices und Ableitung einer Evolutionsmatrix

Author: Cay Oertel

Publisher: Springer-Verlag

ISBN: 3658239719

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 302

View: 2638

Dieses Buch gibt erstmals einen Überblick über den aktuellen Stand des quantitativen immobilienwirtschaftlichen Risk Managements und stellt eine entsprechende Grundstruktur dar. Es wendet sich damit an alle, deren Aufgabe die Entwicklung, Anpassung und Umsetzung von Risikomanagementsystemen im Immobilienbereich ist. Es hilft damit ganz wesentlich bei der Umsetzung regulatorischer Vorgaben, wie zum Beispiel der Etablierung von Risikotragfähigkeitsrechnungen. Die bestehenden gesetzlichen Anforderungen an das Risikomanagement (KAGB, AIFMD, KAMaRisk) sind weitgehend an das Risikomanagement von Wertpapierfonds angelehnt und berücksichtigen die Besonderheiten der Anlageklasse Immobilien nur eingeschränkt. So gibt es etwa keine allgemein anerkannte Definition für die Risikodeckungsmasse eines offenen Immobilienfonds. Die Etablierung einer auf quantitativen Modellen basierenden Risikotragfähigkeitsrechnung, wie regulatorisch gefordert, ist damit eine Herausforderung für das Risikomanagement und wird sehr unterschiedlich gelöst. Die Qualität von Immobilien sowie u. a. ihre Lage und damit ihr Risiko sind sehr individuell und werden seit jeher vor allem qualitativ beurteilt. Die dadurch bedingte Heterogenität sowie die nicht immer gegebene Veröffentlichung von zum Beispiel Transaktionspreisen, Mieten und Mietanreizen hat bis heute den Aufbau von umfassenden immobilien- und marktbezogenen Datenreihen verhindert, die für den Aufbau quantitativer Risikomodelle benötigt werden. Dieses Buch, das mit Unterstützung der Deka Immobilien entstanden ist, leistet einen wichtigen Beitrag zur Lösung dieses Problems.
Science

Sustainable Design and Construction for Geomaterials and Geostructures

Proceedings of the 5th GeoChina International Conference 2018 – Civil Infrastructures Confronting Severe Weathers and Climate Changes: From Failure to Sustainability, held on July 23 to 25, 2018 in HangZhou, China

Author: Behzad Fatahi,Aron Mwanza,Dave T.T. Chang

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319957538

Category: Science

Page: 296

View: 3418

This book presents recent research findings and critically reviews the existing literature related to assessment of geotechnical structures under complex and extreme loading conditions such as cyclic, seismic and blast loads. Special emphasize is given to experimental assessment of behaviors of soils and rocks in tunneling , while advanced numerical modelling techniques are utilized for modelling and accurate predictions in emerging construction projects such as tunneling and embankments. The book is in line with current trends in civil engineering which are moving towards sustainable design and construction addressing the energy and material challenges. Papers were selected from the 5th GeoChina International Conference 2018 – Civil Infrastructures Confronting Severe Weathers and Climate Changes: From Failure to Sustainability, held on July 23 to 25, 2018 in HangZhou, China.
Political Science

Industrial Security

Managing Security in the 21st Century

Author: David L. Russell,Pieter C. Arlow

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118194632

Category: Political Science

Page: 248

View: 8901

Financial institutional

Risikomanagement

Banken, Versicherungen und andere Finanzinstitutionen

Author: John Hull

Publisher: Pearson Deutschland GmbH

ISBN: 9783868940435

Category: Financial institutional

Page: 616

View: 5174

Technology & Engineering

Sicherung des Schienenverkehrs

Grundlagen und Planung der Leit- und Sicherungstechnik

Author: Ulrich Maschek

Publisher: Springer-Verlag

ISBN: 3658228784

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 338

View: 4447

Das Lehr- und Fachbuch zeigt systematisch und mit vielen Abbildungen, wie eine sichere Durchführung des Bahnbetriebs erfolgt. Sowohl die Stellwerkslogik als auch die Umsetzung in der Technik werden ausführlich beschrieben. Besonderen praktischen Nutzen hat das Kapitel zur LST-Planung, deren Darstellung am Beispiel eines elektronischen Stellwerks erfolgt. In der aktuellen Auflage wurde der Abschnitt zum European Train Control System aktualisiert und deutlich erweitert.
Technology & Engineering

Project Management for Engineering and Construction, Third Edition

Author: Garold (Gary) Oberlender

Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional

ISBN: 0071822933

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 448

View: 6652

The Latest, Most Effective Engineering and Construction project Management Strategies Fully revised throughout, this up-to-date guide presents the principles and techniques of managing engineering and construction projects from the initial conceptual phase, through design and construction, to completion. The book emphasizes project management during the beginning stages of project development to influence the quality, cost, and schedule of a project as early in the process as possible. Featuring an all-new chapter on risk management, the third edition also includes new sections on: Ensuring project quality The owner's team Parametric estimating Importance of the estimator Formats for work breakdown structures Design work packages Benefits of planning Calculations to verify schedules and cost distributions Common problems in managing design Build-operate-transfer delivery methods Based on the author's decades of experience in working with hundreds of project managers, this essential resource includes many new real-world examples and updated sample problems. Project Management for Engineering and Construction, Third Edition, covers: Working with project teams Project initiation Early estimates Project budgeting Development of work plan Design proposals Project scheduling Tracking work Design coordination Construction phase Project close out Personal management skills Risk management
Psychology

Advances in Decision Analysis

From Foundations to Applications

Author: Ward Edwards,Ralph F. Miles Jr.,Detlof von Winterfeldt

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1139466127

Category: Psychology

Page: N.A

View: 2933

Decision analysis is a prescriptive theory that aids individuals or groups confronted with complex problems in a wide variety of contexts. By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book is a mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III discusses probabilities and their elicitation and Bayes nets. Part IV discusses additive and multiplicative utilities, risk preferences, and 'option pricing' methods. Part V discusses risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents case studies of applications.
Medical

Environmental and Health Risk Assessment and Management

Principles and Practices

Author: Paolo Ricci

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 1402037767

Category: Medical

Page: 480

View: 6912

This book is about the legal, economical, and practical assessment and management of risky activities arising from routine, catastrophic environmental and occupational exposures to hazardous agents. It includes a discussion of aspects of US and European Union law concerning risky activities, and then develops the economic analyses that are relevant to implementing choices within a supply and demand framework. The book also discusses exposure-response and time-series models used in assessing air and water pollution, as well as probabilistic cancer models, including toxicological compartmental, pharmaco-kinetic models and epidemiological relative risks and odds ratios-based models. Statistical methods to measure agreement, correlation and discordance are also developed. The methods and criteria of decision-analysis, including several measures of value of information (VOI) conclude the expositions. This book is an excellent text for students studying risk assessment and management.
Business & Economics

Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis

Author: Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118938895

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 328

View: 3212

Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis Focusing on modern advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science. Highlighting topics not conventionally found in DA textbooks, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science, including developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges such as online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to explain available data and recommend actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes: An emphasis on new approaches rather than only classical and traditional ideas Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management Innovative methods for deciding what actions to take when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.
Technology & Engineering

Comparative Risk Assessment and Environmental Decision Making

Author: Igor Linkov,Abou Bakr Ramadan

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 1402022433

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 436

View: 1168

Decision making in environmental projects is typically a complex and confusing process characterized by trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts. Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) is a methodology applied to facilitate decision making when various activities compete for limited resources. CRA has become an increasingly accepted research tool and has helped to characterize environmental profiles and priorities on the regional and national level. CRA may be considered as part of the more general but as yet quite academic field of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Considerable research in the area of MCDA has made available methods for applying scientific decision theoretical approaches to multi-criteria problems, but its applications, especially in environmental areas, are still limited. The papers show that the use of comparative risk assessment can provide the scientific basis for environmentally sound and cost-efficient policies, strategies, and solutions to our environmental challenges.
Technology & Engineering

Schutz vor Produktpiraterie

Ein Handbuch für den Maschinen- und Anlagenbau

Author: Eberhard Abele,Philipp Kuske,Horst Lang

Publisher: Springer-Verlag

ISBN: 3642192807

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 160

View: 4390

Das Handbuch beschreibt praxisnah, welche Möglichkeiten Maschinenbau-Unternehmen haben, sich effizient gegen Imitatoren zu wehren. Im Mittelpunkt der präsentierten Know-how-Schutzstrategie stehen dabei nicht nur die Produkte selbst, sondern auch die Unternehmensprozesse. Die Praxistauglichkeit wird anhand eines ausführlichen Beispiels aus der Festo AG & Co. KG demonstriert. Der Band enthält Anwendungsempfehlungen sowie eine Maßnahmensammlung zum Know-how-Schutz für Praktiker im Maschinen- und Anlagenbau.

Winning the loser's game

zeitlose Strategien für Ihre erfolgreiche Geldanlage

Author: Charles D. Ellis

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9783593392325

Category:

Page: 249

View: 1052

Wie kann ich mein Geld sicher und gewinnbringend investieren? Diese Frage stellen sich Anleger weltweit - und das nicht erst seit der Finanzkrise. Die treffende Antwort von Charles D. Ellis lautet: Das Erfolgsgeheimnis der privaten Geldanlage liegt darin, weniger Fehler zu machen als die anderen. Verständlich und zeitlos erklärt der Börsenexperte in diesem vollständig überarbeiteten Klassiker, warum man mit ausgewogenen, langfristigen und kostengünstigen Investments deutlich höhere Renditen erzielen kann als mit risikoreichem Stock Picking oder spekulativem Market Timing. Ein qualitativ anspruchsvoller und trotzdem verständlicher Ratgeber für alle Privatanleger!