Business & Economics

The Fat Tail

The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World (with a New Preface)

Author: Ian Bremmer,Preston Keat

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 9780199752881

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 272

View: 6787

As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests." --Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist
Political Science

A Short Guide to Political Risk

Author: Robert McKellar

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1351961632

Category: Political Science

Page: 198

View: 4248

In a competitive and increasingly internationalised business world, many companies rely on the high risk/reward ratio of operating in unstable areas. Those companies willing to engage in emerging or developing countries can often be exposed to a politically volatile environment over which they have little control. Political risk, therefore, is one of the most hazardous challenges that an international business can face. In A Short Guide to Political Risk you will find a business-centric introduction to political risk that will familiarise international managers with the concept and accelerate the learning curve towards proficient and coherent political risk management. Robert McKellar explores: the key political risks that companies have faced in the recent past, and current trends in the evolution of the political risk landscape; the concept of political risk and its constituent elements; models and approaches for assessing political risk; the principal options for managing political risk, and suggestions for organisational structures to ensure a coherent and consistent approach; as well as wider issues that a company needs to consider in developing its own attitude and philosophy on political risk. A Short Guide to Political Risk is an essential introductory guide for risk managers and for all senior managers concerned with their organisation's global performance and reputation.
Business & Economics

The End of the Free Market

Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?

Author: Ian Bremmer

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 1101429453

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 240

View: 3546

Understanding the rise of state capitalism and its threat to global free markets The End of the Free Market details the growing phenomenon of state capitalism, a system in which governments drive local economies through ownership of market-dominant companies and large pools of excess capital, using them for political gain. This trend threatens America's competitive edge and the conduct of free markets everywhere. An expert on the intersection of economics and politics, Ian Bremmer has followed the rise of state-owned firms in China, Russia, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, Iran, Venezuela, and elsewhere. He demonstrates the growing challenge that state capitalism will pose for the entire global economy. Among the questions addressed: Are we on the brink of a new kind of Cold War, one that pits competing economic systems in a battle for dominance? Can free market countries compete with state capitalist powerhouses over relations with countries that have elements of both systems-like India, Brazil, and Mexico? Does state capitalism have staying power? This guide to the next big global economic trend includes useful insights for investors, business leaders, policymakers, and anyone who wants to understand important emerging changes in international politics and the global economy.
Business & Economics

Every Nation for Itself

What Happens When No One Leads the World

Author: Ian Bremmer

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 159184620X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 229

View: 7050

Posing arguments about growing G-20 restrictions and the inability and unwillingness of powerful governments to mediate global challenges, a portrait of an imminent "G-Zero" world without a single country driving international agendas predicts intensified conflicts that will benefit and victimize specific nations. Reprint.
Business & Economics

Guide to Country Risk

How to Identify, Manage and Mitigate the Risks of Doing Business Across Borders

Author: The Economist,Mina Toksoz

Publisher: Economist the

ISBN: 9781610394864

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 1800

"A systematic approach to identifying, managing and mitigating country risks, backed up by case studies."--P. [4] of cover.
Political Science

Fixing Fragile States

A New Paradigm for Development

Author: Seth D. Kaplan

Publisher: ABC-CLIO

ISBN: 9780275998288

Category: Political Science

Page: 215

View: 468

Offers analysis into political, economic and business mistakes and solutions within fragile states. This title argues that to avoid revisiting the carnage and catastrophes seen in places like Iraq, Bosnia, and the Congo, the West needs to rethink its ideas on fragile states and start helping their peoples build governments that fit the landscape
Political Science

The J Curve

A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall

Author: Ian Bremmer

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

ISBN: 9780743293716

Category: Political Science

Page: 320

View: 9571

Locate nations on the J Curve -- left for authoritarian, right for democratic. Then figure out how to force those on the left to open their societies, rather than encouraging them to shut them tighter by further isolating them. The West's isolation of Kim Jong-il's North Korea gives him the cover he needs to extend his brutal regime (the mistake the U.S. made for a long time with Saddam Hussein and Castro); in Saudi Arabia, western governments should encourage manageable change before the country breaks apart; they should help strengthen China's economy so it can further liberalize; they must encourage Israel to decide what kind of country it will be. Filled with imaginative and surprising examples of how to correct outworn political ideas, The J Curve points the way for western governments to lead the way to a realistic political balance and a healthier economic future.
Business & Economics

What's Next

Essays on Geopolitics That Matter (A Penguin Special from Portfolio)

Author: Ian Bremmer,Douglas Rediker

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 1101621966

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 144

View: 9740

From the world’s leading experts on geopolitical risk, a guide to the major global issues and policies sure to dominate headlines in the next few years. In the last four years, the world has suffered a financial market meltdown and subsequent global recession. The eurozone crisis looms, the Middle East is in turmoil, and a shifting power balance between emerging markets and developed economies is reordering the global economy as a whole. Political and economic challenges intertwine now more than ever before, as the demands of local politics and global business grow increasingly complex and begin to conflict in new ways. Facing these new challenges, what will the future hold? Ian Bremmer and Douglas Rediker, together with experts, analysts, and many of their colleagues from the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk, analyze these global issues and provide a template to understand how they will change our world in the next few years. Focusing on the most volatile, powerful, or misunderstood developments, the authors examine, among other topics: The risks to the International Monetary Fund Russia’s future The roles of emerging markets The political roots of the eurozone crisis Important trends and tensions in Asia-Pacific The rise of regionalism in the wake of fracturing international governance Most importantly, the contributors provide guidance on how to understand some of the key dynamics in the rapidly evolving global game.
History

New States, New Politics

Building the Post-Soviet Nations

Author: Ian Bremmer,Ray Taras

Publisher: CUP Archive

ISBN: 9780521577991

Category: History

Page: 743

View: 3662

This new edition is completely up-to-date and still the only comprehensive reference for students of the nations of the former Soviet Union.
Political Science

Superpower

Three Choices for America's Role in the World

Author: Ian Bremmer

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 0698176391

Category: Political Science

Page: 272

View: 4864

America will remain the world’s only superpower for the foreseeable future. But what sort of superpower? What role should America play in the world? What role do you want America to play? Ian Bremmer argues that Washington’s directionless foreign policy has become prohibitively expensive and increasingly dangerous. Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. policymakers have stumbled from crisis to crisis in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine without a clear strategy. Ordinary Americans too often base their foreign policy choices on allegiance or opposition to the party in power. We can no longer afford this complacency, especially now that both parties are deeply divided about America’s role in the world. The next presidential election could easily pit an interventionist Democrat against an isolationist Republican—or the exact opposite. As 2016 rapidly approaches, Bremmer urges every American to think more deeply about what sort of country America should be and how it should use its superpower status. He explores three options: Independent America asserts that it’s time for America to declare independence from the responsibility to solve other people’s problems. Instead, Americans should lead by example—in part, by investing in the country’s vast untapped potential. Moneyball America acknowledges that Washington can’t meet every international challenge. With a clear-eyed assessment of U.S. strengths and limitations, we must look beyond empty arguments over exceptionalism and American values. The priorities must be to focus on opportunities and to defend U.S. interests where they’re threatened. Indispensable America argues that only America can defend the values on which global stability increasingly depends. In today’s interdependent, hyperconnected world, a turn inward would undermine America’s own security and prosperity. We will never live in a stable world while others are denied their most basic freedoms—from China to Russia to the Middle East and beyond. There are sound arguments for and against each of these choices, but we must choose. Washington can no longer improvise a foreign policy without a lasting commitment to a coherent strategy. As Bremmer notes, “When I began writing this book, I didn’t know which of these three choices I would favor. It’s easy to be swayed by pundits and politicians with a story to sell or an ax to grind. My attempt to make the most honest and forceful case I could make for each of these three arguments helped me understand what I believe and why I believe it. I hope it will do the same for you. I don’t ask you to agree with me. I ask only that you choose.”
Political Science

Political Risk

How Businesses and Organizations Can Anticipate Global Insecurity

Author: Condoleezza Rice,Amy B. Zegart

Publisher: Twelve

ISBN: 1455542369

Category: Political Science

Page: 336

View: 785

From New York Times bestselling author and former U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice and Stanford University professor Amy B. Zegart comes an examination of the rapidly evolving state of political risk, and how to navigate it. The world is changing fast. Political risk-the probability that a political action could significantly impact a company's business-is affecting more businesses in more ways than ever before. A generation ago, political risk mostly involved a handful of industries dealing with governments in a few frontier markets. Today, political risk stems from a widening array of actors, including Twitter users, local officials, activists, terrorists, hackers, and more. The very institutions and laws that were supposed to reduce business uncertainty and risk are often having the opposite effect. In today's globalized world, there are no "safe" bets. POLITICAL RISK investigates and analyzes this evolving landscape, what businesses can do to navigate it, and what all of us can learn about how to better understand and grapple with these rapidly changing global political dynamics. Drawing on lessons from the successes and failures of companies across multiple industries as well as examples from aircraft carrier operations, NASA missions, and other unusual places, POLITICAL RISK offers a first-of-its-kind framework that can be deployed in any organization, from startups to Fortune 500 companies. Organizations that take a serious, systematic approach to political risk management are likely to be surprised less often and recover better. Companies that don't get these basics right are more likely to get blindsided.
Political Science

Protean Power

Author: Peter J. Katzenstein,Lucia A. Seybert

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1108425178

Category: Political Science

Page: N.A

View: 9082

Inquires into the role of the unexpected in world politics by examining the protean power effects of agile innovation and improvisation.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

Skin in the Game

Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 042528462X

Category: BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

Page: 304

View: 8359

The phrase "skin in the game" means that you do not pay attention to what people say, only to what they do, and to how much of their necks they are putting on the line. This willingness to accept one's own risks is an essential attribute of people in all walks of life. Taleb challenges long-held beliefs about those who control our military, finances, religions, and so much more-- and shows how "skin in the game" applies to all aspects of our lives.
Science

Sapiens

A Brief History of Humankind

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

Publisher: Harper Collins

ISBN: 0062316109

Category: Science

Page: 464

View: 350

New York Times Bestseller A Summer Reading Pick for President Barack Obama, Bill Gates, and Mark Zuckerberg From a renowned historian comes a groundbreaking narrative of humanity’s creation and evolution—a #1 international bestseller—that explores the ways in which biology and history have defined us and enhanced our understanding of what it means to be “human.” One hundred thousand years ago, at least six different species of humans inhabited Earth. Yet today there is only one—homo sapiens. What happened to the others? And what may happen to us? Most books about the history of humanity pursue either a historical or a biological approach, but Dr. Yuval Noah Harari breaks the mold with this highly original book that begins about 70,000 years ago with the appearance of modern cognition. From examining the role evolving humans have played in the global ecosystem to charting the rise of empires, Sapiens integrates history and science to reconsider accepted narratives, connect past developments with contemporary concerns, and examine specific events within the context of larger ideas. Dr. Harari also compels us to look ahead, because over the last few decades humans have begun to bend laws of natural selection that have governed life for the past four billion years. We are acquiring the ability to design not only the world around us, but also ourselves. Where is this leading us, and what do we want to become? Featuring 27 photographs, 6 maps, and 25 illustrations/diagrams, this provocative and insightful work is sure to spark debate and is essential reading for aficionados of Jared Diamond, James Gleick, Matt Ridley, Robert Wright, and Sharon Moalem.
Business & Economics

The Perception of Risk

Author: Paul Slovic

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1317341112

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 512

View: 8639

The concept of risk is an outgrowth of our society's great concern about coping with the dangers of modern life. The Perception of Risk brings together the work of Paul Slovic, one of the world's leading analysts of risk, risk perception and risk management, to examine the gap between expert views of risk and public perceptions. Ordered chronologically, it allows the reader to see the evolution of our understanding of such perceptions, from early studies identifying public misconceptions of risk to recent work that recognizes the importance and legitimacy of equity, trust, power and other value-laden issues underlying public concern.
Social Science

The Interpretation of Cultures

Author: Clifford Geertz

Publisher: Basic Books

ISBN: 0465093566

Category: Social Science

Page: 576

View: 8387

In The Interpretation of Cultures, the most original anthropologist of his generation moved far beyond the traditional confines of his discipline to develop an important new concept of culture. This groundbreaking book, winner of the 1974 Sorokin Award of the American Sociological Association, helped define for an entire generation of anthropologists what their field is ultimately about.
Business & Economics

Antifragile

Things that Gain from Disorder

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Random House Incorporated

ISBN: 0812979680

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 519

View: 6395

Shares insights into how adversity can bring out the best in individuals and communities, drawing on multiple disciplines to consider such topics as the superiority of city states over nation states and the drawbacks of debt.

The Athenaeum

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category:

Page: N.A

View: 4382

The Athenæum

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category:

Page: N.A

View: 5847

Fiction

The Devil's Dictionary (or The Cynic's Wordbook: Unabridged with all the Definitions)

Author: Ambrose Bierce

Publisher: e-artnow

ISBN: 8074843955

Category: Fiction

Page: 139

View: 4085

This carefully crafted ebook: "The Devil's Dictionary (or The Cynic's Wordbook: Unabridged with all the Definitions)" is formatted for your eReader with a functional and detailed table of contents. The book is a classic satire in the form of a dictionary on which Bierce worked for decades. It was originally published in 1906 as The Cynic's Word Book before being retitled in 1911. A number of the definitions are accompanied by satiric verses, many of which are signed with comic pseudonyms. It offers reinterpretations of terms in the English language which lampoon cant and political double-talk as well as other aspects of human foolishness and frailty. The definitions provide satirical, witty and often politically pointed representations of the words that is seeks to "define". The Devil's Dictionary has inspired many imitations both in its day and more recently. Ambrose Gwinnett Bierce (1842 – 1914?) was an American satirist, critic, poet, editor and journalist. Bierce became a prolific author of short stories often humorous and sometimes bitter or macabre. His dark, sardonic views and vehemence as a critic earned him the nickname, "Bitter Bierce".