As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests." --Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist
In What's Next, Ian Bremmer, author of Every Nation for Itself and The End of the Free Market, and Douglas Rediker provide a guide to the major global issues and policies sure to dominate headlines in the next few years. In the last four years, the world has suffered a financial market meltdown and subsequent global recession. The eurozone crisis looms, the Middle East is in turmoil, and a shifting power balance between emerging markets and developed economies is reordering the global economy as a whole. Facing these new challenges, what will the future hold? Ian Bremmer and Douglas Rediker, together with experts, analysts, analyze these global issues and provide a template to understand how they will change our world in the next few years. Focusing in on the most volatile, powerful, or misunderstood developments, the authors examine the risks to the IMF, Russia's future, the roles of emerging markets, and the future of US foreign policy. They assess the political roots of the eurozone crisis, the key questions surrounding Afghanistan, important trends and tensions underway in Asia Pacific, and the rise of regionalism in the wake of fracturing international governance. Ian Bremmer is the founder and president of Eurasia Group. He has authored several books, including the national bestsellers, Every Nation for Itself and The End of the Free Market. He is a contributor for the Financial Times A-List and Reuters.com, and served as chairman of the Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk. Presently, he teaches at Columbia University. Douglas Rediker previously represented the United States on the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund. Following almost two decades in international financial markets, he co-founded and directed the Global Strategic Finance Initiative at the New America Foundation, where he is currently a Senior Fellow. He served as chairman of the Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk
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O risco político é profundamente perceptível, porém pouco previsível. Nacionalizações, expropriações, conflitos políticos e armados, terrorismo, bloqueios econômicos e tantos outros sinais dele aparecem fortemente na era global, mas sempre causam surpresa e dificuldades em lidar com seus respectivos contextos. A proposta deste livro é tentar traduzir o risco político em algo fácil de entender e, por conseguinte, analisá-lo. Tendo como autores os maiores cientistas políticos brasileiros do tema, e professores do assunto em curso de Pós-graduação.