'Within the cacophony of voices trying to explain the recent financial crisis, Elena Esposito's voice sounds clear and deep. Steering away from simplistic condemnations and equally simplistic prescriptions for betterment, she connects the very invention of derivatives to that eternal human hope – of controlling the future. While the task is impossible, the attempts never stop, and the very process of attempting it brings some consolation. And while derivatives can be seen, claim sociologists of finance, as performative, that is shaping the future they promise to control, even this is far from certain. Esposito's fascinating and beautiful work is an important contribution to the sociology of finance, a subdiscipline of sociology that took on itself an extremely important task of explaining how the finance markets really work.'– Barbara Czarniawska, University of Gothenburg, Sweden'This is a brilliant and timely book that shows how financing is centrally implicated in the very unpredictability and uncertainty it purports to master. With the incisiveness characteristic of her style and writing, Esposito reads economics in innovative ways that disclose the hidden premises by which financial instruments trade and consume the prospects of the future.' – Jannis Kallinikos, London School of Economics, UK'Elena Esposito's analysis of financial markets and of their recent decline is radically different from the analyses which can be found in economic journals or books. Financial operations are reduced to their basic dimensions: time and money. Under this perspective, what is sold on financial markets is the possibility for the creation of commitments in the course of time, the possibility for the combination of these commitments with one another, and the identification of chances for the achievement of profit opportunities through the creation of specific combinations. The author argues that the recent crisis of the financial system was caused by oversimplified visions of the future and of risk leading to the consequence that options were not available in the present because all possibilities had been used up by the future. This oversimplified vision of the future imploded, and trust with it. The state tried to reconstruct options for the future in order to open up new possibilities and chances for learning. The author does not deliver recipes on how to prevent severe crises of the financial system in the future. Yet, her concept facilitates understanding of how financial futures are opened up or closed and thus provides insights into basic principles on whose basis future opportunities can be kept open and trust can be maintained. Innovative reforms of the financial system can only develop on the basis of unconventional analyses. Elena Esposito's book contains an analysis of this kind.'– Alfred Kieser, Mannheim University, Germany'Elena Esposito's book is a fundamental analysis of time in economics. With economic rigour underpinned by sociological reasoning, she explains the futures market more clearly than is possible with economic analysis alone. Economic concepts are considered in terms of time – actors deal in the present with future risks by transferring these risks to the present situation. As a result, we get more options and more risks at the same time: at present. No equilibrium will balance these trades because of the asymmetry of time: our actual decisions deal with our imagination of the future, that is, with the future of the present, but the results will be realized in the presence of the future – different modalities of time. The book is a sound reflection on modelling time in economic theory, a "must" for economists.'– Birger P. Priddat, Witten/Herdecke University, Germany'The Future of Futures is an original and intellectually provocative book which forces the reader to think. Esposito's essay fulfils two rather different functions. On the one hand, it brings new and persuasive arguments to bear against the erroneous thesis that the present financial crisis is merely due to human mistakes and to some specific government failures. On the other hand, the book suggests that only by reconsidering the role of time in the economy is it possible to make full sense of the crisis and to re-orient in a desired direction the future movements of money. It is a well-known fact that traditional economics has always adhered to a spatial conception of time, according to which time, like space, is perfectly reversible. Whence its inability both to understand how economies develop and to prescribe adequate policies. The author's proposal is to move steps ahead in the direction of an analysis of an economy in time, where both historical time and time as duration can find a place. Esposito's well-written, jargon-free book will capture the attention of anyone seriously interested in the future of our market systems.'– Stefano Zamagni, University of Bologna and Johns Hopkins University, Bologna Center, Italy This book reconstructs the dynamics of economics, beginning explicitly with the role and the relevance of time: money uses the future in order to generate present wealth. Financial markets sell and buy risk, thereby binding the future. Elena Esposito explains that complex risk management techniques of structured finance produce new and uncontrolled risks because they use a simplified idea of the future, failing to account for how the future reacts to attempts at controlling it. During the recent financial crisis, the future had already been used (through securitizations, derivatives and other tools) to the extent that we had many futures, but no open future available.
Based on 51 interviews with logistics CEOs, strategists, and scenario experts, Heiko A. von der Gracht shows that the logistics service industry draws a backward picture of scenario planning practices as compared to other industries.
As communities continue to undergo rapid demographic shifts that modify their composition, culture, and collective values, police departments serving those communities must evolve accordingly in order to remain effective. The Future of Policing: A Practical Guide for Police Managers and Leaders provides concrete instruction to agencies on how to promote successful policing by proceeding on a course informed by future trends and emerging community forces. Explores critical variables necessary for decision-making Designed for typical police departments with common structures, problems, and opportunities, this book offers a unique juxtaposition of real-life examples, futures research, emergent trends, and management implications. Each chapter provides a discussion of the professional literature, current and projected trends, and situations faced by agency executives and leaders. Through this multidimensional and contemporaneous approach, the book explores community and political variables crucial to the decision-making process. It describes methods that managers can employ to explore the future and prepare their agencies for possible, probable, and preferable trends and opportunities. Provides specific, concrete examples Drawn from the authors’ research, as well as their own instructional and practical experience in the policing profession, this volume goes beyond esoteric, theoretical analysis and instead provides practical and well-grounded strategies for those who aspire to become police managers or current managers wishing to improve their proficiency. Using futures research and methodologies as the foundation for the text, this volume prepares practitioners to meet the challenges of policing and police management in the 21st century.
Marketing has changed substantially in the last few years. With more and more research conducted in marketing and consumer behaviour fields, and technological advances and applications occurring on a regular basis, the future of marketing opens up a world of exciting opportunities. Going beyond a state-of-the-art view of the discipline, this innovative volume focuses on the advances being made in many different areas such as; critical thinking, new paradigms, novel conceptualisations, as well as key technological innovations with a direct impact on the theory and practice of marketing. Each chapter presents an expert overview, and an analytical and engaging discussion of the topic, as well as introducing a specific research agenda paving the way for the future. The Routledge Companion to the Future of Marketing provides the reader with a comprehensive set of visionary insights into the future of marketing. This prestigious collection aims to challenge the mindset of marketing scholars, transforming current thinking into new perspectives and advances in marketing knowledge. Foreword Wayne S. DeSarbo, Smeal College of Business, Pennsylvania State Univerity, USA "The Future of Marketing" presents 22 different chapters written by some of the top scholars in the field of Marketing. These 22 chapters are organized into four topical areas: (1) New paradigms and philosophical insights (Chapters 1-5), (2) Contributions from other scientific fields (Chapters 6-9), (3) Reconnecting with consumers and markets (Chapters 10-17), and (4) New methodological insights in scholarly research in the field (Chapters 18-22). Thus, there are a number of diverse areas treated here ranging from futuristic managerial philosophies to state of the art qualitative and quantitative methodologies applicable to the various types of Marketing problems to be faced in the future. There are a number of implicit guidelines (and future research areas and needs) that can be gleaned for (quantitative) modelers in terms of the issues and considerations that their constructed models should explicitly accommodate in future empirical endeavors: Heterogeneity When modeling consumer perceptions, preferences, utility structures, choices, etc., it is important to avoid potential masking issues that aggregate models are subject to in many cases. In the simple case, consider a regression scenario where there are two equal sized segments whose utility functions (as a function of price) are opposite reflections of each other. Aggregating the sample in one large analysis yields a non-significant price elasticity coefficient, whereas estimating separate utility functions by segment displays the true structure in the data. While latent structure and hierarchical Bayesian methods have been developed for disaggregate analyses, a number of methodological issues exist with such existent approaches that provide fertile ground for future research. Competition Many quantitative models are estimated at a brand level and reflect only the efforts of that sole brand. For example, in many customer satisfaction studies, attention is often paid to the consumers of a particular client brand or service in an effort to portray their performance and derive the important drivers of satisfaction. Financial optimization models are then often constructed to examine where a company should invest its resources to best improve sales, retention, word of mouth, loyalty, etc. These studies need to occur in a fully competitive setting where one derives a full picture of the competitive market place. Managers need to know the relative importance of the drivers of satisfaction for their brand/service as well as for their competitors. In addition, knowledge of the relative performance of their brand relative to competitors is necessary information for strategy formation. Ideally, one would hope to see modeling efforts which also examine cross effects in terms of how Brand A’s policy affects other brands. Over time, competitive dynamics are also important as discussed next. Dynamics As seen in the various chapters, this can assume many different manifestations. Related to the previous category above related to competition, it is often necessary to examine competitive dynamics as opposed to comparative statics where the modeler of the future examines simultaneous and/or sequential optimization by each of the competitors in a market place in a game theoretic context. In such a manner, it will not be the case that all competitors end up enacting the same exact identical strategies. Alternatively, the models of the future should be adaptive and have the ability to "learn" from past data, as well as benefit from informed managerial expert input and constraints. Parameter values that change/adapt during the duration of the data are also a desirable feature. Non-Linearity Traditional linear response functions do not typically yield realistic normative managerial guidelines or optimized solutions. End point solutions that suggest "all or none" types of resource allocations are useless in most realistic Marketing applications. A large amount of work is required in this area as Marketing often lacks the strong theory necessary to provide such insight regarding the models that are constructed. In addition, multiple objective functions need to be accommodated with the use of multicriterion optimization methods Endogeneity Often times, there are hidden effects embedded in the various independent variables the Marketer believes are exogenous and truly independent. These may be due to effect of lagged variables, managerial decision making practice, etc. To ignore such effects, threatens the integrity of the models Marketers construct. For example, in traditional regression models, such endogeneity often produces a correlation between the independent variable in question and the error term, often resulting in biased estimates when employing ordinary least-squares estimation. Moderation/Mediation There are times particularly in regression approaches where the relationships between two variables are affected by values of a third variable. In such cases, we need to employ selected interaction effects to measure such moderated effects. Interaction effects are often needed to model the synergistic or catalytic effects of various independent variables. Alternatively, in a mediation regression model, rather than hypothesizing a direct causal relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable, a mediational model hypothesizes that the independent variable influences the mediator variable, which in turn influences the dependent variable. Thus, such moderator and mediator variables serve to clarify the nature of the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. Marketers need to be aware of such potential inter-relationships. Models Guided by Theory Ideally, the models we construct should be more than just data analytic structures which approximate the relationships found in the data. Where possible, models should be constructed on the basis of available sound Marketing theory describing the process being modeled. One of the advantages of structural equation models is that one can utilize such a methodology to test and implement some a priori theory describing the relationship or causal nature of various inter-related constructs. This feature has been lacking in the general modeling efforts to date. A major reason for this is due to the lack of adequate theory development for most of the processes encountered in Marketing. For example, we have no solid Marketing theory regarding the structure of marketing mix response models. Thus progress must be advanced in such areas so that the models we construct are more robust and explainable. I wish to personally thank the co-editors and various authors of the "Future of Marketing" for opening the door to get a glimpse of the future in the field of Marketing. The hope is that this new book will provide fresh ideas to guide future research to improve the field of Marketing and define the next generation of research efforts as the torch gets passed to future generations.
Ever heard of an internal entrepreneur? You might know the type. They’re kind of employee who pushes mercilessly towards the trends of the future. Often looked at as a little bit outside the mainstream, more often than not the decisions this internal entrepreneur makes on behalf of an organization pay off in spades. So what makes an internal entrepreneur? How can you, as a nonprofit, create a culture that rewards futuring, internal entrepreneurs and innovation and doesn’t shut it down? The book “The Future of Nonprofits: Thrive and Innovate in the Digital Age” helps organizations do those very things. Better predicting future trends helps to reshape culture, creating the kind of environment ripe for positive growth in this fast changing world we work in today. Designed for nonprofit employees on all levels, the book will become a go to handbook for those interested in adapting in the modern world, not looking to be left behind. The Future of Nonprofits helps organizations capitalize on internal innovation. Innovative nonprofits are able to better predict future trends to remake and reshape their culture, structure, and staff to be a more nimble and lean. By applying the strategies laid out in this book, nonprofit professionals of all levels can prepare their organizations to take advantage of future trends and develop innovative “internal entrepreneurs” that will grow revenue and drive their mission. Provides nonprofits with a comprehensive playbook on how to create a new, more flexible, innovative organization Provides nonprofits a look at the future of fundraising and communications trends into 2016 Case studies highlight successes and failures Highlights the power and strength of Social Media Hightlights how to hire, train, manage and inspire “internal entrepreneurial” employees Features actionable advice on creating an organization that is primed to grow and thrive in the immediate and long-term future This game-changing book reveals how every nonprofit can put technology, innovation and future trends to work to reach their mission and grow revenue.
This volume brings together about 50 scientists and researchers from the four corners of the world to redefine and anticipate tomorrow's values, and reflect on the direction these values may lead humanity. The volume is divided into four chapters: The Future of Values; Globalization, New Technologies and Culture; Towards New Social Contracts? and Science, Knowledge and Foresight.--Publisher's description.