'Within the cacophony of voices trying to explain the recent financial crisis, Elena Esposito's voice sounds clear and deep. Steering away from simplistic condemnations and equally simplistic prescriptions for betterment, she connects the very invention of derivatives to that eternal human hope – of controlling the future. While the task is impossible, the attempts never stop, and the very process of attempting it brings some consolation. And while derivatives can be seen, claim sociologists of finance, as performative, that is shaping the future they promise to control, even this is far from certain. Esposito's fascinating and beautiful work is an important contribution to the sociology of finance, a subdiscipline of sociology that took on itself an extremely important task of explaining how the finance markets really work.'– Barbara Czarniawska, University of Gothenburg, Sweden'This is a brilliant and timely book that shows how financing is centrally implicated in the very unpredictability and uncertainty it purports to master. With the incisiveness characteristic of her style and writing, Esposito reads economics in innovative ways that disclose the hidden premises by which financial instruments trade and consume the prospects of the future.' – Jannis Kallinikos, London School of Economics, UK'Elena Esposito's analysis of financial markets and of their recent decline is radically different from the analyses which can be found in economic journals or books. Financial operations are reduced to their basic dimensions: time and money. Under this perspective, what is sold on financial markets is the possibility for the creation of commitments in the course of time, the possibility for the combination of these commitments with one another, and the identification of chances for the achievement of profit opportunities through the creation of specific combinations. The author argues that the recent crisis of the financial system was caused by oversimplified visions of the future and of risk leading to the consequence that options were not available in the present because all possibilities had been used up by the future. This oversimplified vision of the future imploded, and trust with it. The state tried to reconstruct options for the future in order to open up new possibilities and chances for learning. The author does not deliver recipes on how to prevent severe crises of the financial system in the future. Yet, her concept facilitates understanding of how financial futures are opened up or closed and thus provides insights into basic principles on whose basis future opportunities can be kept open and trust can be maintained. Innovative reforms of the financial system can only develop on the basis of unconventional analyses. Elena Esposito's book contains an analysis of this kind.'– Alfred Kieser, Mannheim University, Germany'Elena Esposito's book is a fundamental analysis of time in economics. With economic rigour underpinned by sociological reasoning, she explains the futures market more clearly than is possible with economic analysis alone. Economic concepts are considered in terms of time – actors deal in the present with future risks by transferring these risks to the present situation. As a result, we get more options and more risks at the same time: at present. No equilibrium will balance these trades because of the asymmetry of time: our actual decisions deal with our imagination of the future, that is, with the future of the present, but the results will be realized in the presence of the future – different modalities of time. The book is a sound reflection on modelling time in economic theory, a "must" for economists.'– Birger P. Priddat, Witten/Herdecke University, Germany'The Future of Futures is an original and intellectually provocative book which forces the reader to think. Esposito's essay fulfils two rather different functions. On the one hand, it brings new and persuasive arguments to bear against the erroneous thesis that the present financial crisis is merely due to human mistakes and to some specific government failures. On the other hand, the book suggests that only by reconsidering the role of time in the economy is it possible to make full sense of the crisis and to re-orient in a desired direction the future movements of money. It is a well-known fact that traditional economics has always adhered to a spatial conception of time, according to which time, like space, is perfectly reversible. Whence its inability both to understand how economies develop and to prescribe adequate policies. The author's proposal is to move steps ahead in the direction of an analysis of an economy in time, where both historical time and time as duration can find a place. Esposito's well-written, jargon-free book will capture the attention of anyone seriously interested in the future of our market systems.'– Stefano Zamagni, University of Bologna and Johns Hopkins University, Bologna Center, Italy This book reconstructs the dynamics of economics, beginning explicitly with the role and the relevance of time: money uses the future in order to generate present wealth. Financial markets sell and buy risk, thereby binding the future. Elena Esposito explains that complex risk management techniques of structured finance produce new and uncontrolled risks because they use a simplified idea of the future, failing to account for how the future reacts to attempts at controlling it. During the recent financial crisis, the future had already been used (through securitizations, derivatives and other tools) to the extent that we had many futures, but no open future available.
In this booklet, one of a series intended to apply economic principles to major social and political issues of the day, it is proposed that speculation is often misunderstood, particularly in the operation of the futures markets. These are markets in which obligations to consummate sales and purchases at some time in the future are traded at a price specified today. Part 1 of the booklet offers a simplified analysis of some of the elementary economics of transactions involving time. Part 2 analyzes the nature of futures and options markets, and discusses the reasons for their existence, their evolution, and some of the basics involved in their operations. Part 3 is an account of the entities subject to futures and options trading, such as commodities, bonds, shares of corporations, and foreign exchange, and describes the most prominent features of the futures and options markets related to such entities. Finally, Part 4 discusses the social usefulness of futures markets, a few of the common criticisms, and the role of government regulation. (IS)
Futures studies is a new field of inquiry involving systematic and explicit thinking about alternative futures. It aims to demystify the future, make possibilities for the future more known to us, and increase human control over the future. This book summarizes and expands contributions of futurists to the envisioning power and well-being of humanity. Bell brings together futurist intellectual tools, describing and explaining not only the methods, but also the nature, concepts, theories, and exemplars of the field.Foundations of Futures Studies fulfills Bell's five main purposes for writing this two-volume effort: (1) to show that futures studies, like other fields from anthropology to zoology, exists as an identifiable sphere of intellectual activity; (2) to create a teaching instrument that can be used as a basic text for core courses in futures studies; (3) to futurize the thinking of specialists in other disciplines; (4) to contribute to the further development and improvement of futures studies; and (5) to provide tools to empower both ordinary people and leaders to act in ways that create better futures for themselves and their societies. Bell maintains that despite its sometimes doomsday rhetorical style and widespread use by special interests, futures studies offers hope for the future of humanity and concrete ways of realizing that hope in the real world of our everyday lives. It will appeal to all interested in futures studies, as well as sociologists, economists, political scientists, and historians.
Based on 51 interviews with logistics CEOs, strategists, and scenario experts, Heiko A. von der Gracht shows that the logistics service industry draws a backward picture of scenario planning practices as compared to other industries.
Education by Alberta. Commission on Educational Planning
An overview of the current state of the futures and options markets, providing an introduction and overview of markets and industry practices, as well as guidance on a wide range of issues. Topics include markets, instruments, and trading; regulation and management; and the future of futures. Append
Why are America and Britain wealthier than ever but millions of children live in poverty, neighbourhoods want for basic amenities and the middle classes fear for their families, jobs and futures? The answer is not to be found in globalization, technological innovation, or our personal failings to adapt to changing circumstances as we are so often told. The answer lies mainly with the historical legacy of the 'golden era' and the obsession with market individualism. An obsession that the New Democrats in America and the New Labour in Britain have failed to exorcize. Yet the forces of knowledge-driven capitalism provide an unprecedented opportunity at the beginning of the twenty-first century to build societies based on the individual and collective intelligence of all. Capitalism and Social Progress shows how this can be achieved.
Law by Joseph A. Schafer,Michael E. Buerger,Richard W. Myers,Carl J. Jensen III,Bernard H. Levin
Author: Joseph A. Schafer,Michael E. Buerger,Richard W. Myers,Carl J. Jensen III,Bernard H. Levin
Publisher: CRC Press
As communities continue to undergo rapid demographic shifts that modify their composition, culture, and collective values, police departments serving those communities must evolve accordingly in order to remain effective. The Future of Policing: A Practical Guide for Police Managers and Leaders provides concrete instruction to agencies on how to promote successful policing by proceeding on a course informed by future trends and emerging community forces. Explores critical variables necessary for decision-making Designed for typical police departments with common structures, problems, and opportunities, this book offers a unique juxtaposition of real-life examples, futures research, emergent trends, and management implications. Each chapter provides a discussion of the professional literature, current and projected trends, and situations faced by agency executives and leaders. Through this multidimensional and contemporaneous approach, the book explores community and political variables crucial to the decision-making process. It describes methods that managers can employ to explore the future and prepare their agencies for possible, probable, and preferable trends and opportunities. Provides specific, concrete examples Drawn from the authors’ research, as well as their own instructional and practical experience in the policing profession, this volume goes beyond esoteric, theoretical analysis and instead provides practical and well-grounded strategies for those who aspire to become police managers or current managers wishing to improve their proficiency. Using futures research and methodologies as the foundation for the text, this volume prepares practitioners to meet the challenges of policing and police management in the 21st century.
Author: Luiz Moutinho,Enrique Bigné,Ajay K. Manrai
Category: Business & Economics
Marketing has changed substantially in the last few years. With more and more research conducted in marketing and consumer behaviour fields, and technological advances and applications occurring on a regular basis, the future of marketing opens up a world of exciting opportunities. Going beyond a state-of-the-art view of the discipline, this innovative volume focuses on the advances being made in many different areas such as; critical thinking, new paradigms, novel conceptualisations, as well as key technological innovations with a direct impact on the theory and practice of marketing. Each chapter presents an expert overview, and an analytical and engaging discussion of the topic, as well as introducing a specific research agenda paving the way for the future. The Routledge Companion to the Future of Marketing provides the reader with a comprehensive set of visionary insights into the future of marketing. This prestigious collection aims to challenge the mindset of marketing scholars, transforming current thinking into new perspectives and advances in marketing knowledge. Foreword Wayne S. DeSarbo, Smeal College of Business, Pennsylvania State Univerity, USA "The Future of Marketing" presents 22 different chapters written by some of the top scholars in the field of Marketing. These 22 chapters are organized into four topical areas: (1) New paradigms and philosophical insights (Chapters 1-5), (2) Contributions from other scientific fields (Chapters 6-9), (3) Reconnecting with consumers and markets (Chapters 10-17), and (4) New methodological insights in scholarly research in the field (Chapters 18-22). Thus, there are a number of diverse areas treated here ranging from futuristic managerial philosophies to state of the art qualitative and quantitative methodologies applicable to the various types of Marketing problems to be faced in the future. There are a number of implicit guidelines (and future research areas and needs) that can be gleaned for (quantitative) modelers in terms of the issues and considerations that their constructed models should explicitly accommodate in future empirical endeavors: Heterogeneity When modeling consumer perceptions, preferences, utility structures, choices, etc., it is important to avoid potential masking issues that aggregate models are subject to in many cases. In the simple case, consider a regression scenario where there are two equal sized segments whose utility functions (as a function of price) are opposite reflections of each other. Aggregating the sample in one large analysis yields a non-significant price elasticity coefficient, whereas estimating separate utility functions by segment displays the true structure in the data. While latent structure and hierarchical Bayesian methods have been developed for disaggregate analyses, a number of methodological issues exist with such existent approaches that provide fertile ground for future research. Competition Many quantitative models are estimated at a brand level and reflect only the efforts of that sole brand. For example, in many customer satisfaction studies, attention is often paid to the consumers of a particular client brand or service in an effort to portray their performance and derive the important drivers of satisfaction. Financial optimization models are then often constructed to examine where a company should invest its resources to best improve sales, retention, word of mouth, loyalty, etc. These studies need to occur in a fully competitive setting where one derives a full picture of the competitive market place. Managers need to know the relative importance of the drivers of satisfaction for their brand/service as well as for their competitors. In addition, knowledge of the relative performance of their brand relative to competitors is necessary information for strategy formation. Ideally, one would hope to see modeling efforts which also examine cross effects in terms of how Brand A’s policy affects other brands. Over time, competitive dynamics are also important as discussed next. Dynamics As seen in the various chapters, this can assume many different manifestations. Related to the previous category above related to competition, it is often necessary to examine competitive dynamics as opposed to comparative statics where the modeler of the future examines simultaneous and/or sequential optimization by each of the competitors in a market place in a game theoretic context. In such a manner, it will not be the case that all competitors end up enacting the same exact identical strategies. Alternatively, the models of the future should be adaptive and have the ability to "learn" from past data, as well as benefit from informed managerial expert input and constraints. Parameter values that change/adapt during the duration of the data are also a desirable feature. Non-Linearity Traditional linear response functions do not typically yield realistic normative managerial guidelines or optimized solutions. End point solutions that suggest "all or none" types of resource allocations are useless in most realistic Marketing applications. A large amount of work is required in this area as Marketing often lacks the strong theory necessary to provide such insight regarding the models that are constructed. In addition, multiple objective functions need to be accommodated with the use of multicriterion optimization methods Endogeneity Often times, there are hidden effects embedded in the various independent variables the Marketer believes are exogenous and truly independent. These may be due to effect of lagged variables, managerial decision making practice, etc. To ignore such effects, threatens the integrity of the models Marketers construct. For example, in traditional regression models, such endogeneity often produces a correlation between the independent variable in question and the error term, often resulting in biased estimates when employing ordinary least-squares estimation. Moderation/Mediation There are times particularly in regression approaches where the relationships between two variables are affected by values of a third variable. In such cases, we need to employ selected interaction effects to measure such moderated effects. Interaction effects are often needed to model the synergistic or catalytic effects of various independent variables. Alternatively, in a mediation regression model, rather than hypothesizing a direct causal relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable, a mediational model hypothesizes that the independent variable influences the mediator variable, which in turn influences the dependent variable. Thus, such moderator and mediator variables serve to clarify the nature of the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. Marketers need to be aware of such potential inter-relationships. Models Guided by Theory Ideally, the models we construct should be more than just data analytic structures which approximate the relationships found in the data. Where possible, models should be constructed on the basis of available sound Marketing theory describing the process being modeled. One of the advantages of structural equation models is that one can utilize such a methodology to test and implement some a priori theory describing the relationship or causal nature of various inter-related constructs. This feature has been lacking in the general modeling efforts to date. A major reason for this is due to the lack of adequate theory development for most of the processes encountered in Marketing. For example, we have no solid Marketing theory regarding the structure of marketing mix response models. Thus progress must be advanced in such areas so that the models we construct are more robust and explainable. I wish to personally thank the co-editors and various authors of the "Future of Marketing" for opening the door to get a glimpse of the future in the field of Marketing. The hope is that this new book will provide fresh ideas to guide future research to improve the field of Marketing and define the next generation of research efforts as the torch gets passed to future generations.
Technology & Engineering by Paul Chan,Rachel Cooper
Industry leaders and futures thinking in construction
Author: Paul Chan,Rachel Cooper
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Category: Technology & Engineering
There is growing interest in future scenario planning of theconstruction industry but a disconnect between thinking about thefuture at the policy-making level and implementing real change. Constructing Futures: industry leaders and futures thinkingin construction takes a thematic approach to the future of theUK construction industry by presenting the results of a series ofin-depth interviews conducted with leading construction figures andstructuring this material into chapters addressing the keycontemporary issues in the industry. These high-profile figures are drawn from a wide range ofstakeholder groups representing the realities of construction,including architects, client organisations (public-sector andprivate-sector), consultants, contractors, developers, lobby groupswith special interests, policy makers, professional institutions,and trade unions. A total of 15 influential figures were interviewed for the book,from Sir Michael Latham and Bob White to Wayne Hemmingway and KevinMcCloud. Part One looks to the past by reviewing a series of foresightstudies undertaken of the construction industry and re-presentingstories of our interviewees' lives to explain the development ofleadership in the context of the construction industry. In PartTwo, the authors look at the present and discuss two fundamentalissues: sustainable development and governance of the constructionindustry. In Part Three the book concludes with an afterthought forthe future, highlighting key lessons learnt putting forward aseries of research questions derived from this scholarly reflectionof 'futures thinking' in construction. Throughout, the authors juxtapose the views of the 15influential figures interviewed with a review of the salient pointsfound in the relevant and authoritative sources of theoreticalliterature, both in the mainstream literature and the field ofconstruction management. This allows the reader to benefit from thepractical insights of those interviews whilst gaining a rapidunderstanding of the key debates of the theoretical subject underscrutiny.
Drawing on the latest research in futures studies, this book provides new insights into ways of helping both students and teachers think more critically and creatively about their own future and that of wider society. It acknowledges the crucial role of education in helping young people understand the nature of local and global change and the social and environmental impacts such change will have on their future. Setting out a clear educational rationale for promoting global and futures perspective in education, it provides helpful and stimulating examples of futures-orientated classroom activities. It also includes fascinating research into children's views of the future.
Life courses, both professional and personal, are often directed by unplanned experiences. At crossroads, which path is followed and which hard choices are made can change the direction of one's future. Wendell Bell's life illustrates how totally unforeseen events can shape individual lives. As he notes, despite our hopes and our plans for the future, there is also serendipity, feedback, twists and turns, chance and circumstance, all of which shape our futures with sometimes surprising results. In Bell's case, such twists and turns of chance and circumstance led to his role in developing the new field of futures studies. In Memories of the Future, Bell recognizes the importance of images of the future and the effect of these images on events to come. Such images-dreams, visions, or whatever we call them-help to determine our actions, which, in turn, help shape the future, although not always in ways that we intend. Bell illustrates, partly with the story of his own life, how people remember such past images of the future and how the memories of them linger and are often used to judge the real outcomes of their lives. This is a fascinating view of the work of an important social scientist and the people and events that helped define his life. It is also about American higher education, especially from the end of World War II through the 1960s and 1970s, a period of educational transformation that included the spread of the merit system; the increase in ethnic, racial, gender, and social diversity among students and faculty; and a massive increase in research and knowledge.
Futures studies is a new field of inquiry involving systematic and explicit thinking about alternative futures. It aims to demystify the future, make possibilities for the future more known to us, and increase human control over the future. Author Wendell Bell brings together futurist intellectual tools, describing and explaining not only the methods, but also the nature, concepts, theories, and exemplars of the field. Now available in paperback with a new preface from the author, Foundations of Future Studies is the fundamental work on the subject. Bell illustrates how this sphere of intellectual activity offers hope for the future of humanity and concrete ways of realizing that hope in the real world of everyday life. His book will appeal to all interested in futures studies, sociology, economics, political science, and history.
Business & Economics by David J. Neff,Randal C. Moss
Ever heard of an internal entrepreneur? You might know the type. They’re kind of employee who pushes mercilessly towards the trends of the future. Often looked at as a little bit outside the mainstream, more often than not the decisions this internal entrepreneur makes on behalf of an organization pay off in spades. So what makes an internal entrepreneur? How can you, as a nonprofit, create a culture that rewards futuring, internal entrepreneurs and innovation and doesn’t shut it down? The book “The Future of Nonprofits: Thrive and Innovate in the Digital Age” helps organizations do those very things. Better predicting future trends helps to reshape culture, creating the kind of environment ripe for positive growth in this fast changing world we work in today. Designed for nonprofit employees on all levels, the book will become a go to handbook for those interested in adapting in the modern world, not looking to be left behind. The Future of Nonprofits helps organizations capitalize on internal innovation. Innovative nonprofits are able to better predict future trends to remake and reshape their culture, structure, and staff to be a more nimble and lean. By applying the strategies laid out in this book, nonprofit professionals of all levels can prepare their organizations to take advantage of future trends and develop innovative “internal entrepreneurs” that will grow revenue and drive their mission. Provides nonprofits with a comprehensive playbook on how to create a new, more flexible, innovative organization Provides nonprofits a look at the future of fundraising and communications trends into 2016 Case studies highlight successes and failures Highlights the power and strength of Social Media Hightlights how to hire, train, manage and inspire “internal entrepreneurial” employees Features actionable advice on creating an organization that is primed to grow and thrive in the immediate and long-term future This game-changing book reveals how every nonprofit can put technology, innovation and future trends to work to reach their mission and grow revenue.
This volume brings together about 50 scientists and researchers from the four corners of the world to redefine and anticipate tomorrow's values, and reflect on the direction these values may lead humanity. The volume is divided into four chapters: The Future of Values; Globalization, New Technologies and Culture; Towards New Social Contracts? and Science, Knowledge and Foresight.--Publisher's description.