This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.
Business & Economics by Sushil Bikhchandani,Jack Hirshleifer,John G. Riley
Author: Sushil Bikhchandani,Jack Hirshleifer,John G. Riley
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Category: Business & Economics
There has been explosive progress in the economic theory of uncertainty and information in the past few decades. This subject is now taught not only in departments of economics but also in professional schools and programs oriented toward business, government and administration, and public policy. This book attempts to unify the subject matter in a simple, accessible manner. Part I of the book focuses on the economics of uncertainty; Part II examines the economics of information. This revised and updated second edition places a greater focus on game theory. New topics include posted-price markets, mechanism design, common-value auctions, and the one-shot deviation principle for repeated games.
Design with Information Granules of Higher Order and Higher Type
Author: Witold Pedrycz,Shyi-Ming Chen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Information granules are fundamental conceptual entities facilitating perception of complex phenomena and contributing to the enhancement of human centricity in intelligent systems. The formal frameworks of information granules and information granulation comprise fuzzy sets, interval analysis, probability, rough sets, and shadowed sets, to name only a few representatives. Among current developments of Granular Computing, interesting options concern information granules of higher order and of higher type. The higher order information granularity is concerned with an effective formation of information granules over the space being originally constructed by information granules of lower order. This construct is directly associated with the concept of hierarchy of systems composed of successive processing layers characterized by the increasing levels of abstraction. This idea of layered, hierarchical realization of models of complex systems has gained a significant level of visibility in fuzzy modeling with the well-established concept of hierarchical fuzzy models where one strives to achieve a sound tradeoff between accuracy and a level of detail captured by the model and its level of interpretability. Higher type information granules emerge when the information granules themselves cannot be fully characterized in a purely numerical fashion but instead it becomes convenient to exploit their realization in the form of other types of information granules such as type-2 fuzzy sets, interval-valued fuzzy sets, or probabilistic fuzzy sets. Higher order and higher type of information granules constitute the focus of the studies on Granular Computing presented in this study. The book elaborates on sound methodologies of Granular Computing, algorithmic pursuits and an array of diverse applications and case studies in environmental studies, option price forecasting, and power engineering.
The book describes formal models of reasoning that are aimed at capturing the way that economic agents, and decision makers in general think about their environment and make predictions based on their past experience. The focus is on analogies (case-based reasoning) and general theories (rule-based reasoning), and on the interaction between them, as well as between them and Bayesian reasoning. A unified approach allows one to study the dynamics of inductive reasoning in terms of the mode of reasoning that is used to generate predictions.
Harry Markowitz, 1990 für sein Lebenswerk mit dem Nobelpreis ausgezeichnet, hat mit diesem Buch Standards im modernen Wissenschaftsbetrieb gesetzt. Als "Portfolio Selection" 1959 erstmals in Buchform erschien, revolutionierten diese Ansichten das theoretische und praktische Vorgehen im Finanzbereich. Wissenschaftler, Banker und Privatleute mussten radikal umdenken. Markowitz hatte ein Modell entwickelt, das eine völlig neue Strategie bei der Asset Allocation forderte. Basis seiner Theorie, die bis heute Gültigkeit besitzt, ist das Abwägen zwischen Risiko und Ertrag auf mathematischer Basis. Markowitz bewies, dass ein optimales Portfolio dann zustande kommt, wenn der Investor verschiedene Wertpapiere unterschiedlicher Unternehmen und Staaten in sein Depot legt, anstatt auf einzelne Aktien oder Anleihen zu setzen. Diese Mischung reduziert zwar kurzfristig den Ertrag, langfristig jedoch aucvh das Risiko. Als bedeutende Vertreter der Portfolio-Diversifizierung gelten z.B. Warren Buffett und Peter Lynch.
Born of a belief that economic insights should not require much mathematical sophistication, this book proposes novel and parsimonious methods to incorporate ignorance and uncertainty into economic modeling, without complex mathematics. Economics has made great strides over the past several decades in modeling agents' decisions when they are incompletely informed, but many economists believe that there are aspects of these models that are less than satisfactory. Among the concerns are that ignorance is not captured well in most models, that agents' presumed cognitive ability is implausible, and that derived optimal behavior is sometimes driven by the fine details of the model rather than the underlying economics. Compte and Postlewaite lay out a tractable way to address these concerns, and to incorporate plausible limitations on agents' sophistication. A central aspect of the proposed methodology is to restrict the strategies assumed available to agents.
The Nancy L. Schwartz Memorial Lectures, 1983-1997
Author: J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Category: Business & Economics
'Leading economists presenting fundamentally important issues in economic theory' is the theme of the Nancy Schwartz lectures series held annually at the J. L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management of Northwestern University. Reporting on lectures delivered in the years 1983 through 1997, this collection of essays discusses economic behavior at the individual and group level and the implications to the performance of economic systems. Using non-technical language, the speakers present theoretical, experimental, and empirical analysis of decision making under uncertainty and under full and bounded rationality, the influence of economic incentives and habits, and the effects of learning and evolution on dynamic choice. Perfect competition, economic development, social insurance and social mobility, and negotiation and economic survival, are major economic subjects analyzed through our understanding of economic behavior.
These twenty papers were selected by the author. The book includes a major introduction by Werner Hildenbrand, who assesses Professor Debreu's contribution to economic theory and explains the part played by these papers in the development of the subject.
Business & Economics by Thomas A. Durkin,Gregory Elliehausen,Michael E. Staten,Todd J. Zywicki
Author: Thomas A. Durkin,Gregory Elliehausen,Michael E. Staten,Todd J. Zywicki
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Category: Business & Economics
Consumer Credit and the American Economy examines the economics, behavioral science, sociology, history, institutions, law, and regulation of consumer credit in the United States. After discussing the origins and various kinds of consumer credit available in today's marketplace, this book reviews at some length the long run growth of consumer credit to explore the widely held belief that somehow consumer credit has risen "too fast for too long." It then turns to demand and supply with chapters discussing neoclassical theories of demand, new behavioral economics, and evidence on production costs and why consumer credit might seem expensive compared to some other kinds of credit like government finance. This discussion includes review of the economics of risk management and funding sources, as well discussion of the economic theory of why some people might be limited in their credit search, the phenomenon of credit rationing. This examination includes review of issues of risk management through mathematical methods of borrower screening known as credit scoring and financial market sources of funding for offerings of consumer credit. The book then discusses technological change in credit granting. It examines how modern automated information systems called credit reporting agencies, or more popularly "credit bureaus," reduce the costs of information acquisition and permit greater credit availability at less cost. This discussion is followed by examination of the logical offspring of technology, the ubiquitous credit card that permits consumers access to both payments and credit services worldwide virtually instantly. After a chapter on institutions that have arisen to supply credit to individuals for whom mainstream credit is often unavailable, including "payday loans" and other small dollar sources of loans, discussion turns to legal structure and the regulation of consumer credit. There are separate chapters on the theories behind the two main thrusts of federal regulation to this point, fairness for all and financial disclosure. Following these chapters, there is another on state regulation that has long focused on marketplace access and pricing. Before a final concluding chapter, another chapter focuses on two noncredit marketplace products that are closely related to credit. The first of them, debt protection including credit insurance and other forms of credit protection, is economically a complement. The second product, consumer leasing, is a substitute for credit use in many situations, especially involving acquisition of automobiles. This chapter is followed by a full review of consumer bankruptcy, what happens in the worst of cases when consumers find themselves unable to repay their loans. Because of the importance of consumer credit in consumers' financial affairs, the intended audience includes anyone interested in these issues, not only specialists who spend much of their time focused on them. For this reason, the authors have carefully avoided academic jargon and the mathematics that is the modern language of economics. It also examines the psychological, sociological, historical, and especially legal traditions that go into fully understanding what has led to the demand for consumer credit and to what the markets and institutions that provide these products have become today.
As a powerful approach to data reasoning, rough set theory has proven to be invaluable in knowledge acquisition, decision analysis and forecasting, and knowledge discovery. With the ability to enhance the advantages of other soft technology theories, hybrid rough set theory is quickly emerging as a method of choice for decision making under uncertain conditions. Keeping the complicated mathematics to a minimum, Hybrid Rough Sets and Applications in Uncertain Decision-Making provides a systematic introduction to the methods and application of the hybridization for rough set theory with other related soft technology theories, including probability, grey systems, fuzzy sets, and artificial neural networks. It also: Addresses the variety of uncertainties that can arise in the practical application of knowledge representation systems Unveils a novel hybrid model of probability and rough sets Introduces grey variable precision rough set models Analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of various practical applications The authors examine the scope of application of the rough set theory and discuss how the combination of variable precision rough sets and dominance relations can produce probabilistic preference rules out of preference attribute decision tables of preference actions. Complete with numerous cases that illustrate the specific application of hybrid methods, the text adopts the latest achievements in the theory, method, and application of rough sets.
Einer der weltweit führenden Soziologen, Peter Hedström, zeichnet die Grundlagen einer analytischen Soziologie nach. Er argumentiert für eine erklärende Soziologie, die Theorie und Empirie miteinander verbindet.
Research by John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation