This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.
Making Better Decisions introduces readers to some of the principal aspects of decision theory, and examines how these might lead us to make better decisions. • Introduces readers to key aspects of decision theory and examines how they might help us make better decisions • Presentation of material encourages readers to imagine a situation and make a decision or a judgment • Offers a broad coverage of the subject including major insights from several sub-disciplines: microeconomic theory, decision theory, game theory, social choice, statistics, psychology, and philosophy • Explains these insights informally in a language that has minimal mathematical notation or jargon, even when describing and interpreting mathematical theorems • Critically assesses the theory presented within the text, as well as some of its critiques • Includes a web resource for teachers and students
Born of a belief that economic insights should not require much mathematical sophistication, this book proposes novel and parsimonious methods to incorporate ignorance and uncertainty into economic modeling, without complex mathematics. Economics has made great strides over the past several decades in modeling agents' decisions when they are incompletely informed, but many economists believe that there are aspects of these models that are less than satisfactory. Among the concerns are that ignorance is not captured well in most models, that agents' presumed cognitive ability is implausible, and that derived optimal behavior is sometimes driven by the fine details of the model rather than the underlying economics. Compte and Postlewaite lay out a tractable way to address these concerns, and to incorporate plausible limitations on agents' sophistication. A central aspect of the proposed methodology is to restrict the strategies assumed available to agents.
Introduction and basic concepts; Models and probability; Choices and preferences; Preference assessment procedures; Behavioral assumptions and limitations of decision analysis; Risk sharing and incentives; Choices with multiple attributes.
Business & Economics by Sushil Bikhchandani,Jack Hirshleifer,John G. Riley
Author: Sushil Bikhchandani,Jack Hirshleifer,John G. Riley
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Category: Business & Economics
There has been explosive progress in the economic theory of uncertainty and information in the past few decades. This subject is now taught not only in departments of economics but also in professional schools and programs oriented toward business, government and administration, and public policy. This book attempts to unify the subject matter in a simple, accessible manner. Part I of the book focuses on the economics of uncertainty; Part II examines the economics of information. This revised and updated second edition places a greater focus on game theory. New topics include posted-price markets, mechanism design, common-value auctions, and the one-shot deviation principle for repeated games.
Design with Information Granules of Higher Order and Higher Type
Author: Witold Pedrycz,Shyi-Ming Chen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Information granules are fundamental conceptual entities facilitating perception of complex phenomena and contributing to the enhancement of human centricity in intelligent systems. The formal frameworks of information granules and information granulation comprise fuzzy sets, interval analysis, probability, rough sets, and shadowed sets, to name only a few representatives. Among current developments of Granular Computing, interesting options concern information granules of higher order and of higher type. The higher order information granularity is concerned with an effective formation of information granules over the space being originally constructed by information granules of lower order. This construct is directly associated with the concept of hierarchy of systems composed of successive processing layers characterized by the increasing levels of abstraction. This idea of layered, hierarchical realization of models of complex systems has gained a significant level of visibility in fuzzy modeling with the well-established concept of hierarchical fuzzy models where one strives to achieve a sound tradeoff between accuracy and a level of detail captured by the model and its level of interpretability. Higher type information granules emerge when the information granules themselves cannot be fully characterized in a purely numerical fashion but instead it becomes convenient to exploit their realization in the form of other types of information granules such as type-2 fuzzy sets, interval-valued fuzzy sets, or probabilistic fuzzy sets. Higher order and higher type of information granules constitute the focus of the studies on Granular Computing presented in this study. The book elaborates on sound methodologies of Granular Computing, algorithmic pursuits and an array of diverse applications and case studies in environmental studies, option price forecasting, and power engineering.
Social simulation can be a difficult discipline to encompass fully. There are many methods, models, directions, and theories that can be discussed and applied to various social sciences. Anthropology, sociology, political science, economy, government, and management can all benefit from social simulation. Interdisciplinary Applications of Agent-Based Social Simulation and Modeling aims to bring a different perspective to this interdisciplinary topic. This book presents current discussions and new insights on social simulation as a whole, focusing on its dangers, pitfalls, deceits, and challenges. This book is an essential reference for researchers in this field, professionals using social simulation, and even students studying this discipline.
Business & Economics by J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management
The Nancy L. Schwartz Memorial Lectures, 1983-1997
Author: J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Category: Business & Economics
'Leading economists presenting fundamentally important issues in economic theory' is the theme of the Nancy Schwartz lectures series held annually at the J. L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management of Northwestern University. Reporting on lectures delivered in the years 1983 through 1997, this collection of essays discusses economic behavior at the individual and group level and the implications to the performance of economic systems. Using non-technical language, the speakers present theoretical, experimental, and empirical analysis of decision making under uncertainty and under full and bounded rationality, the influence of economic incentives and habits, and the effects of learning and evolution on dynamic choice. Perfect competition, economic development, social insurance and social mobility, and negotiation and economic survival, are major economic subjects analyzed through our understanding of economic behavior.
Business & Economics by Itzhak Gilboa,Larry Samuelson,David Schmeidler
The book deals with the way economic agents reason about uncertainty. It is thus at the foundations of economic theory, touching upon general issues that are common also to statistics, philosophy, psychology, and artificial intelligence. Two modes of reasoning are at the heart of the discussion: reasoning by general rules, or theories, and reasoning by analogies to specific cases. The book offers mathematical models of each type of reasoning, and a unifiedmodel that captures both, in a way that allows a formal analysis of modes of reasoning and their evolution.
In this book, Professor Kreps presents a first course on the basic models of choice theory that underlie much of economic theory. This course, taught for several years at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, gives the student an introduction to the axiomatic method of economic analysis, without placing too heavy a demand on mathematical sophistication.The course begins with the basics of choice and revealed preference theory and then discusses numerical representations of ordinal preference. Models with uncertainty come next: First is von Neumann?Morgenstern utility, and then choice under uncertainty with subjective uncertainty, using the formulation of Anscombe and Aumann, and then sketching the development of Savage's classic theory. Finally, the course delves into a number of special topics, including de Finetti's theorem, modeling choice on a part of a larger problem, dynamic choice, and the empirical evidence against the classic models.
This introductory text presents detailed accounts of the different forms of the theory developed by Stroock and Bismut, discussions of the relationship between these two approaches, and a variety of applications. 1987 edition.
Business & Economics by Ralph L. Keeney,Howard Raiffa
This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe their thoughts and feelings in order to make the critically important trade-offs between incommensurable objectives.
The book provides a thorough treatment of set functions, games and capacities as well as integrals with respect to capacities and games, in a mathematical rigorous presentation and in view of application to decision making. After a short chapter introducing some required basic knowledge (linear programming, polyhedra, ordered sets) and notation, the first part of the book consists of three long chapters developing the mathematical aspects. This part is not related to a particular application field and, by its neutral mathematical style, is useful to the widest audience. It gathers many results and notions which are scattered in the literature of various domains (game theory, decision, combinatorial optimization and operations research). The second part consists of three chapters, applying the previous notions in decision making and modelling: decision under uncertainty, decision with multiple criteria, possibility theory and Dempster-Shafer theory.
Here, two highly experienced authors present an alternative approach to optimal stopping problems. The basic ideas and techniques of the approach can be explained much simpler than the standard methods in the literature on optimal stopping problems. The monograph will teach the reader to apply the technique to many problems in economics and finance, including new ones. From the technical point of view, the method can be characterized as option pricing via the Wiener-Hopf factorization.
Business & Economics by Charles Blackorby,Walter Bossert,David J. Donaldson
Instead of considering society as a social environment, Society in the Self begins from the assumption that society works in the deepest regions of self and identity, as expressed in phenomena like self-sabotage, self-radicalization, self-cure, self-government, self-nationalization, and self-internationalization. This leads to the central thesis that a democratic society can only function properly if it is populated by participants with a democratically organized self. In this book, an integrative model is presented that is inspired by three versions of democracy: cosmopolitan, deliberative, and agonistic democracy, with the latter focusing on the role of social power and emotions. Drawing on these democratic views, three levels of inclusiveness are distinguished in the self: personal (I as an individual), social (I as a member of a group), and global (I as a human being). A democratic self requires the flexibility of moving up and down across these levels of inclusiveness and has to find its way in fields of tension between the self and the other, and between dialogue and social power. As author Hubert Hermans explains, this theory has far reaching consequences for such divergent topics as leadership in the self, cultural diversity in the self, the relationship between reason and emotion, self-empathy, cooperation and competition between self-parts, and the role of social power in prejudice, enemy image construction, and scapegoating. The central message of this book is reflected in Mahatma Gandhi's dictum: "Be the change you want to see in the world."