Meet the next global currency: the Chinese renminbi, or the "redback." Following the global financial crisis of 2008, China's major monetary policy objective is the internationalization of the renminbi, that is, to create an inter-national role for its currency akin to the international role currently played by the U.S. dollar. Renminbi internationalization is a hot topic, for good reason. It is, essentially, a window onto the Chinese government's aspirations and the larger process of economic and financial transformation. Making the renminbi a global currency requires rebalancing the Chinese economy, developing the country's financial markets and opening them to the rest of the world, and moving to a more flexible exchange rate. In other words, the internationalization of the renminbi is a monetary and financial issue with much broader supra-monetary and financial implications. This book offers a new perspective on the larger issues of economic, financial, and institutional change in what will eventually be the world's largest economy.
Business & Economics by International Monetary Institute
As from 2012, the International Monetary Institution (IMI) of the Renmin University of China publishes annual reports on the internationalization of RMB. This series of annual reports create and publish the RMB Internationalization Index (RII). Besides, they focus on one topic in each year's report. This book focuses on the offshore RMB markets. It studies several major international currencies' historical developments to summarize theoretical implications between currency internationalization process and its offshore market development. It reviews the recent development of RMB offshore markets, identifies key opportunities and challenges, and proposes some suggestions to policy makers and market practitioners. The RII will continue to rise as the RMB plays a more and more important role in international trades and financial transactions. The establishment and development of RMB offshore markets will facilitate the internationalization process of the RMB.
Among emerging market currencies, the RMB holds the most potential to become widely used internationally, due to China‘s large economic size, diversified trade structure and network, macroeconomic stability, and high growth rates - both current and expected. Yet, foreign access to RMB-denominated assets that could act as global stores of value remains limited due to extensive restrictions on capitals flows. At the same time, the rapid expansion of RMB trade settlement and issuance of RMB-denominated bonds by the Chinese government and corporates in Hong Kong, SAR have created some feedback channels across onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) RMB markets. We employed a bivariate GARCH model to understand the inter-linkages between onshore and offshore markets and found that, while developments in the onshore spot market exert an influence on the offshore spot market, offshore forward rates have a predictive impact on onshore forward rates. We also find evidence of volatility spillovers between two markets. Overtime, those spillover channels would be expected to grow as the offshore market further develops.
In summary, it is clear that the renminbi's challenge to the US dollar is real. China is determined to promote internationalization of its currency to the fullest extent possible. Though it has accomplished much in terms of policy initiatives, substantive impacts on market behaviour to date have been limited, mainly because Beijing has been playing with a relatively weak hand -- reflecting both its underdeveloped financial system and the continuing ubiquity of the dollar in international markets. All that could change, however, if US policy remains as complacent as it has been in the past. The more the Trump administration presses forward with its mercantilist agenda, the more likely it is that over time the dollar will lose ground to the renminbi.
' This book argues that only by reforming the international monetary system can we prevent financial crises in the future and the internationalization of the Renminbi, China''s national currency, will be an important step in the process. Just as the old saying goes, "An old building needs to be demolished before a new one can be erected in its place," there will be no construction without destruction. The commencement of the dismantling of the old monetary system is also the beginning of the construction of the new one. Contrary to Western rhetoric, which portrays China as part of the cause of the recent financial crisis, the author contends that China is actually a victim of the current unjust international economic and monetary system. To address the imbalance and break the dollar-dominated international monetary system, the author calls for the internationalization of the Renminbi and diversification of the international monetary system. Written by one of the foremost financial practitioners in China, this book is thought-provoking and provides a unique Chinese perspective on how the international monetary system should be reformed, what the future system should look like and the role China should play in the process. It is a required reading for anyone interested in understanding China''s own vision in its rise in the global political, economic and financial systems. Contents:Evolution of the International Monetary System:The Gold StandardThe Gold-exchange StandardThe Bretton Woods SystemPatterns in the Evolution of the International Monetary SystemThe Current International Monetary System:Characteristics of the Current International Monetary SystemAppraisal of the Current International Monetary SystemSustainability of the Current International Monetary System — An AnalysisGlobal Financial Crisis and the International Monetary System:Causes, Development and Impact of the Global Financial CrisisGlobal Financial Crisis'' Impact on the International Monetary SystemAdjust Global Economic Imbalance and Reform the International Monetary SystemReform of the Current International Monetary System:Proposals for Reforming the International Monetary SystemRealistic Choice for Reforming the International Monetary SystemChina and Current International Monetary System ReformRegional Currency Cooperation:Regional Currency Cooperation TheoryEuropean Currency CooperationEast Asian Currency CooperationChina and East Asian Currency CooperationInternationalization of the Renminbi:Currency InternationalizationInternationalization of Major CurrenciesCurrent State of the Internationalization of the RenminbiCost-Benefit Analysis of the Internationalization of the RenminbiPathway Towards Internationalizing the Renminbi Readership: Researchers, economists, finance professionals, analysts, individual investors, monetary and banking authorities and those who are interested in the reform of the international monetary reform, the roles China and its currency, the RMB, are going to play in the process. Key Features:This book is written by one of the foremost financial practitioners in ChinaThis book provides a unique Chinese perspective on what role it should play in the international monetary systemThis book will be a welcoming antidote to the Western-scholars-dominated narrative on China''s economic and financial developmentKeywords:IMF;World Bank;Financial Crisis;International Monetary System;RMB;International Monetary System Reform;China;US;Dollar;Renminbi;Yuan;Currency;Exchange Rate'
ABSTRACT: The renminbi is currently undergoing a process of internationalization which has raised fundamental questions about the evolution of the international monetary system and the dominance of the US dollar. In this article, we assess how far the renminbi has travelled down the internationalization road and analyse the possibilities for it challenging the role of the US dollar in the future. We utilize Cohen's (1971 ) taxonomy to document the current dimensions of renminbi internationalization. Looking forward, we briefly summarize three common approaches to analysing currency internationalization, and propose a new approach. We argue that renminbi internationalization should be seen as a response to crises, first the Asian financial crisis and then the global financial crisis. As such, we argue that current internationalization has been driven by short‐term problem solving rather than a coherent long‐term strategy. The current path of RMB internationalization is best described as one of 'currency normalization' rather than 'currency dominance'.
Offshore use of the renminbi expanded rapidly in Hong Kong SAR as China sought to develop an international role for its currency while maintaining capital controls. This prompts two questions addressed in this paper: How far advanced is renminbi internationalization? And, what role does Chinese capital account liberalization play? The first is addressed by testing the extent of integration of offshore and onshore markets for the renminbi using a Threshold Autoregression (TAR) model and finds that there are substantial unexploited arbitrage opportunities. A VAR model is used to indentify factors contributing to this limited market integration and finds that capital controls and shifts in global market sentiment explain much of the divergence in onshore and offshore renminbi exchange rates. To address the second question, the paper shows how capital account measures have been used to promote offshore use of the renminbi more actively in the wake of the global financial crisis, but that this was done asymmetrically with controls on inflows eased to a greater extent than on outflows. It concludes that a more balanced liberalization process will sustain progress in renminbi internationalization.
Business & Economics by International Monetary Institute
The recent financial crisis, rooted in the United States, has changed the world’s economic and financial structures. The Chinese government has made some arrangements in the post-crisis to ensure stable economic growth in volatile international economic environments and to protect its own interests from unfair international monetary treatments. The internationalization of Renminbi (RMB) is one of China's most important national strategies in the 21st century and is symbolic in the rise of China. This book aims to document the process and the development of the internationalization of Renminbi and to identify the challenges. The book introduces an index of internationalization of Renminbi. It also uses a comprehensive multi-variable index to determine the degree of internationalization of Renminbi. This book helps readers to understand the current status of the reformation on China’s currency system, the process of internationalization of the RMB and the current, intricate political and economic relations.
Amid the fallout from the global financial crisis, much has been written about whether the United States can continue as the world's predominant economic power and whether the emerging BRIC economies, particularly China, are poised to challenge the current financial and economic architecture. In recent months, speculation has focused on the future of the U.S. dollar, largely due to comments by senior Chinese officials that have led some observers to conclude that the renminbi is set to usurp the dollar's place as the world's reserve currency.Although such headlines make thrilling copy, Melissa Murphy and Wen Jin Yuan argue that it would be a mistake to conclude that China is ready to ditch the dollar anytime soon, let alone seek to replace the dollar with the renminbi as a reserve currency. Beijing has accumulated around 1.4 trillion in U.S. dollar reserves and is keen to avoid any precipitous decline in the dollar's value--which would in turn devalue its own holdings. But, while China is still a long way from challenging the dollar's global reserve currency status, as the largest holder of U.S. debt, Beijing is undoubtedly nervous about the prospect of a weaker dollar and is taking steps to diversify its reserves, as well as to internationalize the renminbi. There also seems little doubt that in the next decade China will emerge as a major player in the international financial system. Given the strategic geopolitical and economic implications of these developments, this report attempts to provide a clearer understanding of what is motivating Beijing's current moves, where its policy is likely headed, and the implications for the United States.
The global financial crisis of 2007–2008 was both an economic catastrophe and a watershed event in world politics. In American Power after the Financial Crisis, Jonathan Kirshner explains how the crisis altered the international balance of power, affecting the patterns and pulse of world politics. The crisis, Kirshner argues, brought about an end to what he identifies as the "second postwar American order" because it undermined the legitimacy of the economic ideas that underpinned that order—especially those that encouraged and even insisted upon uninhibited financial deregulation. The crisis also accelerated two existing trends: the relative erosion of the power and political influence of the United States and the increased political influence of other states, most notably, but not exclusively, China. Looking ahead, Kirshner anticipates a “New Heterogeneity” in thinking about how best to manage domestic and international money and finance. These divergences—such as varying assessments of and reactions to newly visible vulnerabilities in the American economy and changing attitudes about the long-term appeal of the dollar—will offer a bold challenge to the United States and its essentially unchanged disposition toward financial policy and regulation. This New Heterogeneity will contribute to greater discord among nations about how best to manage the global economy. A provocative look at how the 2007–2008 economic collapse diminished U.S. dominance in world politics, American Power after the Financial Crisis suggests that the most significant and lasting impact of the crisis and the Great Recession will be the inability of the United States to enforce its political and economic priorities on an increasingly recalcitrant world.